中俄戰略夥伴關係及其對台海紛爭的意涵

Abstract

本文的核心論證是中俄戰略「夥伴關係」代表兩個相鄰大國間近五十年來的最佳關係，如同在二○○一年七月十六日簽署的「中俄友好條約」，這是一種「菁英發起」與「菁英處理」的關係，其商貿面向一向是相對微不足道且受到嚴格控制，但戰略面向卻如俄羅斯對中共出售廣泛的武器與技術所顯示，相當具有潛力。此一關係並未立即衝撞美國之戰略利益，但其對台海兩岸關係卻具有顯著重要性，中俄友好關係讓中共得以將原先駐守北方的重兵重新部署到東南沿海，俄國對中共軍售提升了中共對台威脅之能力，另一方面，中俄重新結盟強化了美國對台之安全保障關係。最後，中俄雙方由強烈敵對轉變成繁盛的夥伴關係，關於此一雙邊關係被運用到兩岸關係上，其所操作之外交技巧應該是雙方都考慮過的。

The central argument of this paper is that the Sino-Russian strategic ”partnership”, as sealed in a new Friendship Treaty on July 16, 2001, represents the best relationship between these two gigantic neighbors in nearly 50 years. It is an elite-initiated and elite-managed relationship, and the commercial dimension has been relatively modest and tightly controlled, but the strategic dimension has considerable potential, as indicated by extensive Russian arms and technology sales to the PRC. This partnership does not immediately impinge on the strategic interests of the United States, but its implications for Taiwan Strait relations are of considerable consequence. The friendship frees China to redeploy military forces from the north to the southeast, and arms sales enhance China`s threat to Taiwan. On the other hand, the resulting international realignment tends to strengthen US patronage of Taipei. Finally, the diplomatic techniques used to turn bitter bilateral enmity into a thriving partnership are considered with regard to their conceivable applicability to Taiwan-China relations.