比較俄羅斯與中國之進口替代效果

Abstract

本文分析俄羅斯與中國的經濟發展過程中，進口替代策略對經濟成長的貢獻，試圖解釋俄羅斯與中國之進口保護制度對經濟發展的影響程度。以俄羅斯進口保護政策的內容爲研究變數，探討俄羅斯如何經由採取禁止性關稅政策和非關稅障礙（non-tariff barriers，簡稱NTBs）來保護其本國產業，經由凱納瑞(H.B. Chenery)教授的「工業成長模型」(Patterns of Industrial Growth)中衡量的進口替代 (Import Substitution)對經濟成長的貢獻來測度俄羅斯的進口替代效果。因此，本文首先係針對俄羅斯與中國在經濟轉型過程中，進口保護政策的內容進行歸納分析，探討俄羅斯與中國在進口保護政策的具體措施與發展，再運用成本－效益分析方法來衡量進口替代貢獻率，探討俄羅斯與中國之進口關稅保護政策及其所產生的交易成本與進口替代效果，以驗證俄羅斯與中國的進口替代政策的改革成效。由於本文的研究，使我們發現中國長期的進口替代戰略確實對中國的經濟發展有顯著的貢獻，而俄羅斯的進口替代貢獻率和經濟成長率卻呈現隨機的模式。

This text analyzes the period of the economic evolution in Russia and China. How is the contributing of import substitution to development in economic growth? I attempt to explain the influence degree of imported protection system to economic development of Russia and China. Regard importing the content of the protective policy in Russia and China as the parameter of studying, it is discussed how Russia and China are via adopting the prohibitive tariff policy and non-tariff barriers protect the industry of their own country, via receiving the ”Patterns of Industrial Growth” of professor Chenery to measure the import substitution. So, this text directs against Russia and China in the course of economic transition at first, sum up to analysis, probe into the concrete measure and development that Russia and China are importing the protective policy in content of importing the protective policy, and then use the cost-benefit method to analyze the contribution rate of import substitution. This article discusses the import duty protective policies of Russia and China and transaction cost produced with import the result of substituting, in order to verify the reform effect of the policies of import substitution of Russia and China. Research because of this text, we find that China long-term substituted strategy really the economic development of China has made apparent contribution to economic growth. But the contribution rate of the import substitution of Russia and economic growth rate is presented the way at random.