Comparing Third-Wave Democracies: East Central Europe and the ROC

Abstract

This article develops a four-category analytical framework to compare the process of democratic consolidation in East Asia (the Republic of China on Taiwan in particular) and East and Central Europe (ECE-Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary). The four categories are social cleavage, party system, constitutional framework, and the nature of elections. Each category impacts on political stability. A major finding is that Taiwan is characterized by pre-materialist social cleavages, a biparty system sustained by the SNTV (single nontransferable vote) electoral regime and the staying power of the Kuomintang (KMT), a semi-presidential structure plagued by divided government, and identity voting. In contrast, the ECE countries are characterized by materialist social cleavages, a multiparty system, a parliamentary constitutional structure (except for Poland who shares with the ROC a semi-presidential system), and economic voting. Those characteristics have specific implications for political stability: materialist cleavages, biparty system, parliamentarianism, and economic voting are all conducive to political stability, while pre materialist cleavages, multiparty system, semi-presidential system with divided government, and identity voting political instability. With Taiwan gradually developing into a multiparty system, the lessons from the ECE countries are becoming even pertinent.