Evaluating Economic Indicators in Post-WTO China

Abstract

The study of economic development in the PRC has particularly been plagued by problems of conceptualization, missing data, incorrect reporting, sampling error where complete enumeration is not achievable, inconsistency of ”mirror” statistics, and other pitfalls. Such data problems have long posed difficulties to students of contemporary China, most recently helping to exacerbate the debate over the likely effects that China`s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) will have on the country`s economy. Some fear that increased international competition will heighten domestic economic problems and push China into economic collapse, while others hold that WTO membership will bring China a bonanza of foreign direct investment, massively increased trade opportunities, and more rapid domestic economic growth. Evaluating these conflicting claims is difficult due to problems in accurately measuring China`s current economic performance, especially gross domestic product (GDP). The first section of this essay reviews the ”coming collapse” hypothesis and-finding it wanting in the short term-section two moves on to examining the longer-time horizon. The analysis in these two sections provides many alternative and indirect methods of data measurement. These methods of data collection and evaluation, moreover, help show that China`s prospects for continued economic development under the WTO, while assuredly not all positive or risk-free, are on the whole quite positive.