我國中央教育經費規劃、預測與控制模式之研究

Abstract

隨著國家政策與經建的發展，中央教育經費的規劃、預測與控制之問題愈來愈受到重視。而工商界利用系統模式達成目標管理及預測發展的方法已行之多年，效果亦相當顯著，這些方法似乎可以協助公共部門解決目前所遭遇的困難。本文應用系統規畫之理念，配合計量統計分析、時間數列預測模式及控制流程，針對我國教育系統之特性，建立中央教育經費規劃系統模式，以提供決策單位參考，並希望藉著系統之預測，有效地分配教育經費及資源，最後藉著實際執行之狀態，評估模式之效果，運用控制模式，修正並完成既定之目標。Accompanying with the formation of the National policy and economic development, the budgeting problem of the Central government has getting more and more public concerned during these years. Meanwhile, there are a lot of enterprises took advantage of the system models and successful developed many useful techniques, such as management by objectives and forecasting techniques, to achieve their business goals. It seems that the business approaches can help the public sectors to solve the budgeting problem.The authors try to apply the idea of systematic planning and the methods of quantitative analyses, time series forecasting model and the controlling flow chart to build a sensitive model to control the Central government`s educational expenditures and revenues. The purpose is using the forecasting system to allocate the educational resources properly.Through the real world in terms of education resources allocation in the central government of Taiwan, the authors verified the effect of the model and found it is useful for the policy makers to achieve a better allocation policy.