東アジア経済統合の展望とその課題 東亞經濟整合之展望與課題

Abstract

1990年代以後，區域經濟整合逐漸成為一股潮流。而近四十餘年來，東亞經濟的快速發展，各國間的經濟關係更加緊密。為進一步促進經濟發展，東亞各國於1999年以後積極展開區域貿易協定之談判與簽署。本研究主要內容包括利用統計分析，從實質GDP、貿易、投資之觀點來描繪東亞地區之經濟成長情形。其次，透過最新資料發現新加坡、日本、中國大陸、韓國為東亞地區簽署較多之國家。另外，就ASEAN+3、ASEAN+6、FTAAP、TPP等東亞經濟整合之四項構思來展望東亞經濟整合。同時，提出未來東亞經濟整合之課題包括以ASEAN為主軸的東亞經濟整合、交涉領域廣泛且深入、互蒙其利的經濟整合、東亞地區之匯率合作。最後，探討台灣在東亞經濟整合上應採取之策略。From the 1990s, regional economic integration has become one of the mainstream ideas in the world. Over the past 40 years, the East Asian economy has developed rapidly, and economic relations among the countries have become much closer. Since 1999, each country in the East Asia region has worked on the regional trade agreement actively in order to achieve further economic development. The main topic of this study is a description of East Asia`s economic growth in terms of GDP, trade and investment through a statistical analysis. The latest data shows that Singapore, Japan, Mainland China and South Korea tend to make positive efforts toward the formation of economic agreements in East Asia. Additionally, this study will look into the future prospects of East Asian regional economic integration from the concept of ASEAN, ASEAN plus-3, ASEAN plus-6, FTAAP and TPP. At the same time, to the study will touch on future challenges in the East Asian economic integration, such as ASEAN-centered economic integration, economic negotiations in a wide field, mutually-beneficial economic integration and cooperation for exchange stabilization in the East Asia. Finally some strategies for Taiwan to keep up with a stream of East Asian economic integration are also suggested.