見た目は新しいが中身は変わらず：第二期オバマ政権のアジア太平洋政策の初歩研究

Abstract

美國總統大選已於2012年11月6日舉行，總統歐巴馬（Barack H.Obama）確定獲得連任，但其｢再平衡｣政策會否於第二任期延續，則在政策界與學界引起討論。本文認為，即便有國內外不同聲音，歐巴馬第二任期仍會持續推動對亞洲的｢再平衡｣政策。新古典現實主義（neo-classical realism）之視角，尤其是｢資源擷取｣模式，有助我們分析歐巴馬第二任期之外交政策取向，也就是各國領導人必須考量在國際體系外在環境的限制下要如何決策。本文認為，歐巴馬第一任期推動「再平衡」戰略以重返亞洲，即是由於金融危機後，考量本身國家能力的負擔、尤其是如何自社會擷取資源困難的情況下所作出之回應，希望以最小的成本來達成穩定亞太局勢、維護美國國家利益之目的。準此，歐巴馬第二任期內，其亞太政策之內涵以及執行方式可能會有所微調，包括提高TPP的重要性。然而，這樣的調整也是新瓶裝舊酒，以「再平衡」為主軸之亞太政策應會延續。

Mr. Barack H. Obama was re-elected as U.S. President on November 6, 2012, and whether the policy under the name of `rebalancing` would be carried over to his second term is still under contestation in policy circles as well as academia around the world. This article argues that the second Obama administration would continue the `rebalancing` strategy in its Asia relations, despite criticisms from home and abroad. Neo-classical realism in the field of international relations (IR) sheds light on this research, especially the `resource-extraction model,` in which top leaders need to consider the constraints put forth by the international system or external environment prior to making their decisions. Given the negative impact of the financial crisis, how to extract resources from society, among other things in the domestic milieu for decision-making, becomes salient to political elites. The United States under Obama`s second term, as a result, would continue its `rebalancing` strategy in hopes of maximizing national interests while minimizing policy costs. To achieve this goal, the Obama administration will somewhat adjust this policy and prioritize the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This adjustment is more `old wine in a new bottle` than the other way around. We can expect to witness continuity rather than change in President Obama`s Asia policy in the years to come.