習近平の反腐敗運動における摘発対象者の関係ネットワークと政治的影響

Abstract

習近平上任一年八個月，已查辦42 位副省部級以上高官。習近平強力反腐的目的為何？遭查辦者是否存在共同的關係網絡？查辦這些關係網絡將產生哪些政治影響？本文採用關係模式，輔以歸納法研究後發現，習近平反貪腐之目的乃爭取民心、排除異己與開鍘立威。在「新四人幫」中僅剩下令計劃尚未查辦，但已有五位同黨遭查辦。周永康集團共計被查辦15 位。未來反腐可能更上層樓，或以依法治國取代運動反腐。習近平強力反腐已造成中共執政菁英出現分裂。此一分裂，能否有助於中國政體轉型，關鍵在於習近平是否需要藉助民間力量反腐，不過目前機率不高。習近平查處18 位地方官員，已對地方產生威嚇作用，故可望解決中央宏觀調控政策屢遭地方抗拒的難題。

Within 1 year and 8 months of Xi Jinping becoming the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, 42 senior officials at deputy positions above the provincial and ministerial levels have been prosecuted for corruption. This study investigated Xi’s purpose for actively combating corruption, whether shared guanxi networks existed among the prosecuted officials, and the political influences generated by Xi’s investigation into these networks. By adopting a relational model and an inductive approach, this study found that the purposes of Xi’s anticorruption campaign were to gain public support, to eliminate dissidents, and to establish his power. In the new Gang of Four, only Ling Jihua has escaped prosecution; however, 5 of his allies have been prosecuted, and 15 members in Zhou Yongkang’s group have been prosecuted. In the future, the anticorruption campaign may be expanded or replaced by the principle of the rule of law. Xi’s strong anticorruption measures have led to a division among the ruling elite. However, whether the split can facilitate the transformation of the communist regime in China depends on whether Xi’s anticorruption measures require the support of civil society, the possibility of which is currently low. Xi’s prosecution of 18 local officials has effectively intimidated local governments; therefore, the problem of local governments frequently resisting the macro-control policies of the central government is likely to be solved.