考慮臨時性與恆常性就業之景氣循環分析

Abstract

本計畫中探討景氣循環過程中臨時性和恆久性就業的波動及驅動的因子。我們設計了一個動態一般均衡模型用來解釋以下的既定事實：一、臨時性就業較恆久性就業的波動程度更大；二、臨時就業勞動的比例具有強烈順循環性；三、恆久性就業落後景氣循環平均兩個季度；四、臨時性就業和產出的相關性比恆久性就業更為強烈。透過量化分析，我們發現所提出的機制足以捕捉到上述的既定事實並且透過模型的反事實分析能夠預測兩類就業在不同機制下所產生的衝擊反應，並藉此提供適當的預測。This paper investigates the fluctuations in temporary and permanent employment over the business cycle, as well as the underlying driving forces. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the following stylized facts: (i) temporary employment is much more volatile than permanent employment, (ii) the share of temporary employment (the ratio of temporary to aggregate employment) exhibits strong pro-cyclicality, (iii) permanent employment lags by two quarters on average, and (iv) the correlation between temporary employment and output is stronger than that involving the permanent counterpart. The quantitative analysis suggests that our proposed channels explain the main facts very well and the model provides a possible prediction based on the counter-factual exercises.