臺灣半導體進出口研究：以海關進口稅則8542節實證分析

Abstract

1989年至2018年間，臺灣海關進口稅則8542節「積體電路」貿易出口值成長100倍，該節出口值占整體貨品百分比亦由1989年1.86％高速成長至2018年28.5％，「積體電路」相關發展已成為現今臺灣國際競爭力命脈。稅則8542節「積體電路」貿易淨出口值顯示2003年第2季臺灣積體電路完成進口替代，推升臺灣整體電子業往產業鏈上游移動，並促進臺灣電子業目前居於全球價值鏈中上游的位階。本文的實證結果顯示，臺灣積體電路完成進口替代後對「新臺幣兌美元匯率」、「美國消費電子進口值」及「時間趨勢變數」較完成進口替代前呈現正向顯著性；值得關注的是「中國大陸出口至美國消費電子值」於2段時期皆呈現正向顯著性，且於完成進口替代前拉動臺灣積體電路淨出口的能力高於完成進口替代後。

From 1989 to 2018, the total export volume of “Electronic Integrated Circuit (IC)”, which is classified under Heading 8542 of HS Code, increased 100 times, and the ratio of the export volume of IC divided by Taiwan’s total export volume was significantly increased from 1.86% of 1989 to 28.5% of 2018. Nowadays, IC has become the most important industry of Taiwan. Trade net export statistics of Heading 8542 of HS Code shows that the import substitution of IC was completed in the second season of 2003, which has moved Taiwan upward in the global supply chain of electronic industry. In addition, Taiwan electronic industry is now standing in the middle-up of the global value chain as well. This empirical analysis further indicates that “Exchange rate of NTD against USD”, “Consumption electronics import to US”, and “Time trend variable” are positive & significant variables after the completion of IC import substitution. On the other hand, no matter whether the time is before or after the IC import substitution, “Consumption electronics export from China to US” is a positive & significant variable, which shows that the ability to enhance the net export of Taiwan’s IC before import substitution is higher than that after import substitution.