序數邊際效用理論：對於不確定性的分析

Abstract

本文採用林忠正（2015e）提出的序數邊際效用分析法，探討人們面對不確定性的決策，並將分析結果與期望值理論、預期效用理論及展望理論等進行比較。結果顯示，序數邊際效用理論能通過Kahneman《快思慢想》（Thinking, Fast and Slow）一書中三個不確定性問題（尋求或規避風險、參考點的不同及損失厭惡）的檢驗。從針對不確定性問題所建立的新理論模型及三個問題的分析結果，可得出以下結論：（a）序數邊際效用理論能擁有更多的經濟意涵；（b）對於不確定性的各種可能決策，序數邊際效用理論都能加以解釋，而非預測單一結果。發現序數邊際效用理論有潛力能成為分析不確定性的一套可行方法，本研究結果可作為進一步應用序數邊際效用理論探討不確定性的指南。

This paper used the ordinal marginal utility theory brought up by Chung-Cheng Lin (2015e) to discuss the decision-making in the face of uncertainty, and compares the analysis results with expected value theory, expected utility theory and prospect theory. The results show that the ordinal marginal utility theory can pass the test of three uncertainty problems (seeking or avoiding risks, differences in reference points, and loss aversion) in “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Kahneman . From the new theoretical model established for the uncertainty problem and the analysis results of the three questions, the following conclusions can be drawn: (a) the ordinal marginal utility theory has more economic implications, and (b) for uncertainty the various possible decisions, the ordinal marginal utility theory can explain, rather than predict a single result. The discovery of the ordinal marginal utility theory may be a feasible method for analyzing uncertainty. The results of this study can be used as a guide to the application of ordinal marginal utility theory to explore uncertainty.