歐盟國家之貨幣與通膨

Abstract

After the 2008 global financial crisis beginning in the U.S., the major economies have been infected by the global systematic financial turmoil. In that case, major monetary authorities have taken preemptive unconventional monetary policies immediately after the interest rate policy fail to keep financial market functioning. Unconventional monetary policy is usually considered as balance sheet policy in peacetime. Recently, a vast of literatures concerning the effects of balance sheet policy shocks reveal that balance sheet policy shocks affected the output and price level positively. Rather, we find that the monetary base and broad money in European Union countries grew disproportionately after the crisis.\nIn this paper, we apply two panel data models to estimate the inflation effects in European Union countries. We have several findings. First, ECB coordinated central banks to conduct large-scale assets purchase in the euro area, but balance sheet policy has affected these countries differently. Moreover, the Panel VAR results shows that the inflation effect of the mean group is smaller than the results of most empirical literatures. Besides, each individual European Union country responds to balance sheet policy shocks with heterogeneous inflation effects. In addition, some EU countries, such as Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Spain, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovenia, and Slovakia, even show deflation replies. Lastly, empirical results of panel data indicate that inflation and monetary base growth rate reveals a significant negative relation, while inflation and M3 growth rate has a positive relation.