中美貿易戰下美國封殺華為對華為在台核心供應鏈之影響

Abstract

目前全球經濟及貿易情勢，正受到中美貿易戰的影響，其中重點事件無非為「美國封殺華」。而在此背景下華為在台核心供應鏈無疑會受到重大影響。本研究之目的為分析華為在台核心供應鏈受此事件影響下，企業自身彈性及競爭力高低與否，以及財務面之影響程度高低為何。\n本研究在研究方法主要透過採取個案研究法，針對華為在台10家核心供應商進行兩面向之分析，分別為「財務表現」及「企業風險承受」。在「財務表現」透過2018華為占總營收比例及2019年華為占總營收預估比例，算出企業受華為影響之變化率。在「企業風險承受」中透過三面向之指標進行分析。最後結合「財務表現」及「企業風險承受」兩者為一矩陣，進行更進一步之供應商曝險分析 。\n研究發現透過「財務表現」及「企業風險承受」兩面向之結合，可將華為在台核心供應商所受之風險程度分成高、中、低三族群，可進一步看出其在座標軸上之位置，並建立一事件下之分析架構，期許後續相關研究可以加入其他不同變數，使本架構更具適用性及完整性。

The global economic and trade situations are affected by the trade war between China and the U.S. and the key event is “ Huawei ban.” Under this situation, Huawei’s core supply chain in Taiwan will undoubtedly be affected significantly. The purpose of this study is to analyze how the Huawei’s core supply chain in Taiwan is affected in term of the company’s flexibility, competitiveness, and the financial impact.\nThe study focuses on Huawei’s 10 core suppliers in Taiwan from two aspects including financial performance and enterprise flexibility. In the “financial performance” aspect, the core suppliers’ total revenues are used to estimate the decline ratio that might be influenced by Huawei. In the “enterprise flexibility” aspect analyze through three- dimension indicators.\nThe study found that through the combination of “financial performance” and “enterprise flexibility”, can divided Huawei’s core suppliers into high, medium and low three groups, and in order to see each supplier position on the coordinate axis and the risk exposure. The study establishes a framework to analyze an event, and the further research could incorporate other variables to make the model more applicable and complete.