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Title: 從川普政府貿易政策發展看拉美對美國及中國大陸貿易之互動
Authors: 洪淑芬
Hung, Shu-Fen
Contributors: 國關中心
Keywords: 美拉貿易 ;「美國第一」貿易政策;關稅; 美墨加協定
US-Latin America and the Caribbean trade ; "America First" trade policy ;Tariff ;United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
Date: 2019-06
Issue Date: 2020-06-22 10:51:10 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 川普政府對拉美(包含加勒比地區,以下同)貿易政策的主要發展是:關稅、重啟《北美自由貿易協定》談判並簽訂《美墨加協定》、及退出跨太平洋夥伴關係協定。改善美國貿易逆差是川普貿易政策的主要議題,由於2018年美國對墨西哥有815億美元的貿易逆差,僅次於對中國的4192億美元,是拉美最易受到美國可能實施的進口措施衝擊。巴西和墨西哥是美國第二和第四大鋼鐵進口來源,共佔拉美地區鋼鐵輸美的95%。阿根廷和巴西已同意將其鋼和鋁對美的出口納入配額,以免增加輸美的關稅。墨西哥是全球第七大汽車生產國,《美墨加協定》中,墨西哥每年汽車輸美260萬輛和汽車零組件輸美1080億美元的免關稅,使墨西哥經濟大為受惠。十餘年來,中國對拉美大宗商品的龐大需求及強大注資,加速了中拉之間的經濟聯繫與貿易比重。川普政府的政策,對美拉關係產生了一些不利的影響,但提供了中國與拉美發展關係的機會。相對之下,拉美對美國的貿易依賴,已大為縮減,而且,拉美各國對美國的貿易依賴程度不同,如墨西哥、中美洲和某些加勒比國家對美國的依賴較大,南美洲國家的依賴程度較小,因此,拉美各國對美國的立場和態度不盡相同,但是,都反對貿易保護主義。美國在拉美有巨大的政治、經濟及軍事利益,尤其,仍是大多數拉美國家外交的重點。川普的「美國優先」貿易政策將持續影響美拉關係,而拉美國家則會積極尋求與歐洲和亞洲各國的多元合作,降低對美國的依賴,以應對美國貿易保護主義。
The Trump administration's major trade policy developments in Latin American countries and the Caribbean area (LAC) are tariffs, renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement and signing United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Improving the US trade deficit is the main issue of Trump's trade policy. The United States ran a $419 billion goods deficit with China in 2018. As Mexico is the second largest contributor to the goods deficit at $81.5 billion, it is the most vulnerable to import measures that the United States may implement in LAC. Brazil and Mexico are the second and fourth largest steel exporters to the U.S. and together are responsible for almost 95% of the region's steel exports to the U.S. Argentina and Brazil have agreed to subject their steel and aluminum exports to quotas in order to avoid the increased tariffs. Mexico is the seventh largest vehicle producer in the world, and autos (including vehicles and parts) are Mexico's largest exports to the United States. In the USMCA, the U.S. has agreed that the section 232 measures shall exclude imports from Mexico for up to 2.6 million passenger vehicles and US$108 billion worth of auto parts in any calendar year, which will greatly benefit the Mexican economy. Over the past decade or so, both China's huge demand for LAC commodities and its strong capital injection have accelerated economic ties between China and LAC. Which in turn reduced the dependence of LAC on the US economy. As different LAC countries have different degrees of trade dependence on the United States, e.g., Mexico, Central America, and some Caribbean countries are more dependent, while South American countries are less dependent, they have a different standpoint and attitude toward the United States. However, the y all oppose trade protectionism. While the United States has enormous political, economic, and military interests in LAC, it remains the focus of most LAC diplomacy. Trump's "American First" trade policy will continue to influence the US- LAC relationship, LAC countries, in response to US trade protectionism, will actively seek multilateral cooperation with European and Asian countries to reduce their dependence on the United States.
Relation: 拉丁美洲經貿季刊, 37期, pp.P43 - 65
Data Type: article
DOI 連結:
Appears in Collections:[國際關係研究中心] 期刊論文

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