臺北市社子島解除禁建之宣告效果

Abstract

禁建乃極為嚴格的管制手段，目的在維持農業生產環境或對高受災風險地區予以保護，然而為因應經濟發展與都市型態的改變，對於土地的使用管制策略必須適時做出調整。過往文獻中於制度變更（rezone）與降級管制（downzone）對土地市場的影響有諸多討論，然升級管制（upzone）常為都市發展飽和地區所應用之策略，以填補可開發土地之不足，研究對象則以住宅市場居多，較少對土地市場投以關注。另一方面，土地市場參與者可能會依據政策改變所傳達之資訊形成投資決策，任何與土地使用相關的政策或計畫宣告可能造成供需價量的變動，從而引起地價之漲跌，故分析政策或計畫方案改變對土地市場的影響時應將宣告時點納入考量，以獲取完整的市場資訊。而本研究即利用社子島土地市場的特殊性，分析解禁（升級管制手段之一）計畫方案宣告的價格效果。\n於研究設計上，首先建立時間序列自我迴歸落遲分配模型，判斷解禁計畫方案中各階段之宣告對社子島地價趨勢的影響效果，再利用特徵價格模型分析社子島地價之影響因素，並評估其於宣告前後對地價貢獻程度的變化。實證結果顯示，當解禁方案宣告終止時，將對社子島地價產生負向影響。申言之，若已發佈的升級管制政策因故未通過相關審查或不執行，則可以判斷地價將面臨下行風險。此外，當地價因解禁方案的不繼續執行而下跌時，區位可及性因素對於地價的貢獻程度隨之下降，惟大面積土地仍較小面積者受到青睞，以避免未來可能面臨的土地整合成本。

The prohibition on land development is an extremely strict method that aimed at maintaining the agricultural environment or protecting areas from high risk of disasters. However, in response to the change of economic and urban development, the land-use policies should be adjusted in a timely manner. According to the past literature, there have been many discussions on the impact of rezoning or downzoning on land market. Nevertheless, as a strategy that being implemented to fill the deficiencies of developable land for developed areas, most of the articles about upzoning focus mainly on the residential market. Therefore, the lack of papers about the response of land market to upzoning policies is worthy of more attention.\nOn the other hand, any announcement related to land-use policies will immediately cause supply and demand to change, which could result in the volatility on land value. Thus, the timing of announcement should be taken into consideration to obtain complete market information when analyzing the impact of changes in land-use policies on land market. Consequently, this study tried to analyze the announcement effect of the projects, name in Manhattan Program and Eco-Shezidao, of lifting ban on land development (one of the means of upzoning) with the particularity of the land market in Shezidao in Taipei City.\nAutoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Hedonic Price Model were used in this study for capturing the announcement effect of the projects on land value and land market. Empirical results showed that once the project is declared to be terminated or suspended, it would have a negative impact on land value in Shezidao, which is the key to change the trend of land value from rising to falling. In other words, if an upzoning policy fails to pass the relevant reviews, it could be predicted that land value is going to have a downside risk. In addition, the contribution of location accessibility factors to land value would also decrease, while developers still prefer large plots, which can avoid the cost of land assembly that may be faced in the future.