Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/132461| 題名: | 房租管制政策對租金之影響-以德國租屋市場為例 Estimating the Impact of Rent Control on Rents: Germany’s Rental Housing Market as an Example |
作者: | 毛栗子 Gomm, Moritz |
貢獻者: | 林左裕<br>徐士勛 Lin, Tso-Yu Calvin<br>Hsu, Shih-Hsun 毛栗子 Gomm, Moritz |
關鍵詞: | 房租管制政策 德國 差異中的差異 Rent control German rental market Difference-in-Difference (DiD) Denton method Akaike information criterion (AIC) |
日期: | 2020 | 上傳時間: | 3-Nov-2020 | 摘要: | Five years after the first cities in Germany implemented rent controls, this thesis estimates the effect of the policy on the changes in rents with a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach comparing city-level rents for newly-let apartments. For this purpose, panel data for 110 German cities for the 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019 is used. Because the panel data inhibits unit roots and is therefore non-stationary, the first difference (FD) of the logarithmized time-series for rents as well as quarter-on-quarter changes for socioeconomic time-series are used. In order to overcome that city-level data in Germany is only available on a yearly basis, quarterly data will be derived with the Denton method for smoothing or disaggregation. Results of the analysis suggest that contrary to public opinion, rent control had a statistically significant dampening effect on the development of rents in the first group of cities that implemented the policy. Nevertheless, a lack of new rental supply due to slow building activity vis-à-vis strong in-migration to larger cities remains the main factor for increasing rents. For policy implication, the lack of residential supply will have to be addressed and building activity in larger and more popular cities will have to be increased, if a lasting solution to rising rents wants to be found. | 參考文獻: | Alston, R. M., Kearl, J. R., & Vaughan, M. B. (1992). Is There a Consensus Among Economists in the 1990s? American Economic Review, 82, 203-9.\nAngrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2014). Mastering `Metrics : The Path from Cause to Effect. New Jersey, US: Princeton University Press.\nArnott, R. (1995). Time for revisionism on rent control? Journal of Economic Perspective, 1, 99-120.\nBaum, C. F., & Hristakeva, S. (2001). Denton: Stata Module to Interpolate a Flow or Stock Series from Low-frequency Totals Via Proportional Denton Method. Statistical Software Components S422501.\nBienert, S. (2018). Guest Editorial. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 2.\nBischoff, O., & Maennig, W. (2011). Rental Housing Market Segmentation in Germany According to Ownership. Journal of Property Research, 28(2), 133-149.\nBloem, A. D. (2001). Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation. IMF Working Paper.\nCajias, M., & Freudenreich, P. (2018). Exploring the Determinants of Liquidity with Big Data – Market Heterogeneity in German Markets. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 3-18.\nCard, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-793.\nCase, K. E., & Shiller, J. R. (1990). Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market. Journal of the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association, 18(3), 253–273.\nCollaboration in Research and Methodology for Official Statistics (CROS) European Comission. (2014). Macro Integration: Denton`s Method. Memobust Handbook on Methodology of Modern Business Statistics.\nColumbia University Mailman School of Public Health. (2020). Difference-in-Difference Estimation. Retrieved from Columbia Public Health: https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/research/population-health-methods/difference-difference-estimation\nDenton, F. T. (1971). Adjustment of Monthly or Quarterly Series to Annual Totals: An Approach Based on Quadratic Minimization. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99-102.\nDeschermeier, P., Haas, H., Hude, M., & Voigtlaender, M. (2016). A First Analysis of the New German Rent Regulation. International Journal of Housing Policy, 16(3), 293-315,.\nDeschermeier, P., Seipelt, B., & Voigtländer, M. (2017, May). Evaluation der Mietpreisbremse. IW Policy Paper.\nDeutsches Studentenwerk. (2018). Wohnen im Studium. Retrieved from https://www.studentenwerke.de/de/content/wohnen-im-studium#:~:text=Wohnheime%20werden%20bundesweit%20von%209,dem%20Partner%20oder%20der%20Partnerin.\nDewilde, C. (2018). Explaining the Declined Affordability of Housing for Low-income Private Renters Across Western Europe. Urban Studies, 55(12), 2618-2639.\nDi Fonzo, T., & Marini, M. (2012). On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method. IMF Working Paper, 12(169).\nDiamond, R., Qian, F., & McQuade, T. (2018). The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES, 24181.\nDickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.\nDIW Berlin. (2018). Evaluierung der Mietpreisbremse: Enbericht.\nEdmiston, K. D. (2016). Residential Rent Affordability across U.S. Metropolitan Areas. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.\nElliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836.\nEmpirica regio. (2020). Immobilienpreisindex: Mietpreise.\nFallis, G., & Smith, L. B. (1984). Uncontrolled Prices in a Controlled Market: The Case of Rent Controls. The American Economic Review, 74(1), 193-200.\nFederal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, Germany. (2019, Jul). Wohnungsleerstände nehmen in vielen ländlichen Räumen zu. Retrieved from https://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/WohnenImmobilien/Immobilienmarktbeobachtung/ProjekteFachbeitraege/Wohnungsleerstand/wohnungsleerstand.html.\nFrehner, M. (2020, Apr 1). Mietpreisbremse einfach erklärt: Das gilt seit 2020. Retrieved from Deutsche Handwerks Zeitung: https://www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de/uebersicht-zur-mietpreisbremse-was-sie-zum-thema-wissen-muessen/150/3093/365886\nGoncalves Raposo, I. (2019, Jul 08). It`s Hard to Live in the City: Berlin’s Rent Freeze and the Economics of Rent Control. Retrieved from Bruegel: https://www.bruegel.org/2019/07/its-hard-to-live-in-the-city-berlins-rent-freeze-and-the-economics-of-rent-control/\nGranger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.\nGrant, P., & Patnaude, A. (2017, Apr 04). Europe`s New Safe Haven: German Real Estate. Dow Jones Institutional News ; New York.\nHeinrich-Böll-Stiftung. (2020). Mietpreisbremse. Retrieved from KommunalWiki: http://kommunalwiki.boell.de/index.php/Mietpreisbremse\nHenger, R., & Voigtländer, M. (2019, Jul 22). Ist der Wohnungsbau auf dem richtigen Weg? IW Report 28.\nHertrich, M. (2019). A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 31.\nHiller, N., & Schultewolter, D. (2014). Quo vadis Wohnungspolitik? Wirtschaftsdienst, 94, 34-40.\nHoolachan, J., McKee, K., Moore, T., & Soaita, A. M. (2017). ‘Generation Rent’ and the Ability to ‘Settle Down’: Economic and Geographical Variation in Young People’s Housing Transitions. Journal of Youth Studies, 63-78.\nKaduszkiewicz, H., Teichert, U., & van den Bussche, H. (2018). Shortage of Physicians in Rural Areas and in the Public Health Service : A Critical Analysis of the Evidence on the Role of Medical Education and Training. Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz, 61(2), 187-194.\nKassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung. (2019). Regionale Verteilung der Ärzte in der vertragsärztlichen Versorgung. Retrieved from Gesundheitsdaten: https://gesundheitsdaten.kbv.de/cms/html/16402.php\nKholodilin, K., Mense, A., & Michelsen, C. (2016). Die Mietpreisbremse wirkt bisher nicht. DIW Wochenbericht(22), 491-499.\nKholodilin, K., Mense, A., & Michelsen, C. (2018). Mietpreisbremse ist besser als ihr Ruf, aber nicht die Lösung des Wohnungsmarktproblems. DIW Wochenbericht, pp. 108–117.\nKohl, S. (2016). Urban History Matters: Explaining the German–American Homeownership Gap. Housing Studies, 31(6), 694-713.\nKroell, A., & Farhauer, O. (2016). Examining Homelessness in Germany: The Impact of Regional Housing Market Conditions on Homelessness in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Papers in Regional Science, 95(Supplement 1), S51-S69.\nLinz, S., Fries, C., & Völker, J. (2018). Saisonbereinigung der Konjunkturstatistiken mit X-12-Arima und mit X13 in JDemetra+. Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) WISTA(4), 59-.\nMaddala, G. S., & Wu, S. (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61(S1).\nOechsner, T. (2018, Feb 14). Die Mietpreisbremse wirkt doch. Retrieved from Sueddeutsche Zeitung: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/mietpreisbremse-studie-diw-1.3865416#:~:text=Die%20Mietpreisbremse%20sollte%20verhindern%2C%20dass,insgesamt%20teurer%20wird%2C%20zu%20wohnen.&text=Sie%20besagt%3A%20Zieht%20ein%20neuer,Miete%20f%C3%BCr%20Wohnungen%2\nOno, T., Schoenstein, M., & Buchan, J. (2014). Geographic Imbalances in Doctor Supply and Policy Responses. OECD Health Working Papers, 69.\nRonald, R. (2013). Housing and Welfare in Western Europe: Transformations and Challenges for the Social Rented Sector. LHI Journal of Land, Housing, and Urban Affairs, 4(1), 1-13.\nSchaefer, P., & Just, T. (2018). Does Urban Tourism Attractiveness Affect Young Adult Migration in Germany? Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 68-90.\nSchneider, M., & Wagner, K. (2016). Housing Markets in Austria, Germany and Switzerland. The Narodowy Bank Polski Workshop: Recent Trends in the Real Estate Market and Its Analysis - 2015 Edition.\nSchwarz, T. (2019, 08). Baugenehmigungen im langjährigen Vergleich und ihre Verteilung auf die Stadt- und Landkreise Baden-Württembergs. Statistisches Monatsheft Baden-Württemberg.\nStatistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder. (2019). Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Bruttowertschöpfung in den kreisfreien Städten und Landkreisen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1992 und 1994 bis 2017. Retrieved from https://www.statistikportal.de/de/veroeffentlichungen/bruttoinlandsprodukt-bruttowertschoepfung-0.\nStatistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder. (2020). Bevölkerung nach Geschlecht - Stichtag 31.12. - regionale Tiefe: Kreise und krfr. Städte. Retrieved from Regionaldatenbank Deutschland: https://www.regionalstatistik.de/genesis/online/data?operation=previous&levelindex=2&step=2&titel=Tabellenaufbau&levelid=1597992530448&acceptscookies=false\nStatistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder. (2020). Statistik der Baufertigstellungen. Retrieved from Regionaldatenbank Deutschland: https://www.regionalstatistik.de/genesis/online/data?operation=previous&levelindex=0&step=0&titel=Themen+%2F+Statistiken&levelid=1590631070515&acceptscookies=false\nStatistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder. (2020). Statistik der Baugenehmigungen. Retrieved from Regionaldatenbank Deutschland: https://www.regionalstatistik.de/genesis/online/data?operation=previous&levelindex=0&step=0&titel=Themen+%2F+Statistiken&levelid=1590631070515&acceptscookies=false\nStatistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). (2019). Städte-Boom und Baustau: Entwicklungen auf dem deutschen Wohnungsmarkt 2008 – 2018. Press Conference Statement.\nStatistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). (2019). Wohnen in Deutschland, Table 5. Retrieved from https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Wohnen/Publikationen/Downloads-Wohnen/wohnen-in-deutschland-5122125189005.html?nn=206104.\nStatistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). (2020). Studierende an Hochschulen. Fachserie 11, Reihe 4.1, WS 2019/20.\nStatistisches Bundesamt (Destatis). (2020). VGR des Bundes - Bruttowertschöpfung, Bruttoinlandsprodukt (nominal/preisbereinigt): Deutschland, Quartale, Original- und bereinigte Daten. Retrieved from https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online?operation=previous&levelindex=0&step=0&titel=Tabellenaufbau&levelid=1597989746645&acceptscookies=false#abreadcrumb\nSzumilo, N., Wiegelmann, T., Łaszkiewicz, E., Pietrzak, M. B., & Balcerzak, A. P. (2018). The Real Alternative? A Comparison of German Real Estate Returns with Bonds and Stocks. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 19-31.\nTagesschau. (2020, Sep 06). Wieder flogen Steine und Bengalos. Retrieved from tagesschau.de: https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/randale-leipzig-103.html\nThe Economist. (2018, Jun 15). The Economis Explains why Germany`s Rent Brake has Failed. Retrieved from The Economist.\nThe Economist. (2019, Sep 19). Control Our Instincts: Rent Control Will Make Housing Shortages Worse. The Economist. Retrieved from The Economist.\nThe Economist. (2019, Jul 20). Thick as a Brick - Europe Embraces Rent Controls, a Policy that Never Works. The Economist.\nThomschke, L. (2019a). On the Evaluation of the German Rental Price Break. Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie, 5, 21-36.\nThomschke, L. (2019b). Regional Impact of the German Rent Brake. German Economic Review, 20(4), e892–e912.\nTuffs, A. (2011). Germany Passes Law to Attract Doctors to Rural Areas. BMJ, 343.\nTurner, B., & Malpezzi, S. (2003). A Review of Empirical Evidence on the Costs and Benefits of Rent Control. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 10, 11-56.\nWang, Z., & Hui, E. (2017). Fundamentals and Market Sentiment in Housing Market. Housing, Theory and Society, 57-78.\nWijburg, G., & Aalbers, M. B. (2017). The Alternative Financialization of the German Housing Market. Housing Studies, 32(7), 968-989.\nWilkes, W. (2017, Apr 04). Germany`s Housing Boom a Boon for Developers. Dow Jones Institutional News; New York.\nZacharakis, Z. (2020, Jun 17). Das vorläufige Ende des Immermehr. Retrieved from Zeit Online: https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2020-06/mietendeckel-berlin-senkung-mieten-wohnungsmarkt\nZeitler, J.-A. (2018). European Rental Housing Framework for the Profitability Calculation of Energy Efficiency Retrofitting Investments. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1). | 描述: | 碩士 國立政治大學 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) 107266014 |
資料來源: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266014 | 資料類型: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | 學位論文 |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 601401.pdf | 1.94 MB | Adobe PDF2 | View/Open |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.