China and Its Neighbors: Asymmetrical Economies and Vulnerability to Coercion

Abstract

With respect to China and its neighbors, what are the political implications when a great power advances economically into small states? This paper presents an asymmetry-coercion linkage to explain the relationship between a great power and small states by reconceptualizing Albert Hirschman`s theory of trade dependency. This reconceptualization involves two tasks. First, the paper explicates vulnerability to coercion as a consequence of economic asymmetry, whereby a small state becomes susceptible to a great power`s compellence or co-optation to take a certain path preferred by the latter. Second, in demonstrating and measuring vulnerability to coercion, the paper accounts for the three factors: trade concentration, non-transparency, and reliance on bilateral aid. The combined effect of these three factors is that among the six countries under investigation, Cambodia and North Korea are extremely vulnerable to China`s coercion, while Vietnam is the least vulnerable state.