美國對香港政策的變遷: 從歐巴馬到川普政府

Abstract

本文探討美國自冷戰時期至現今的香港政策。第一章為論文的結構介紹。第二章則回顧美國在1943年於開羅會議中對香港主權歸屬的態度，再到香港主權確定由英國收回後，香港於冷戰時對美國的價值，最後探討美國對香港於1997年主權移交時的態度—即美國是否支持香港獨立。\n\n第三章及第四章節中，本文回顧歐巴馬及川普兩任總統的對中政策、香港情勢及兩位總統各自的對港政策。在梳理完時代背景及介紹完兩任總統的政策細節後，第五章利用三層次分析法以分析為何美國從歐巴馬到川普任內的對港政策會出現調整以及如何進行調整，並在最後章節做出結論及建議。

This thesis thoroughly investigates America’s foreign policy towards Hong Kong beginning in the British colonial period to the Chinese-governing era. It first discusses the U.S.’ opinions on Hong Kong’s sovereignty at the Cairo Conference in 1943 and then touches upon Hong Kong’s values for America in the Cold War era. Later, the author analyzes America’s attitudes to Hong Kong’s handover in 1997 and if the U.S.’ supported Hong Kong’s independence during the negotiations between the British and Chinese governments over Hong Kong’s handover.\n\nIn Chapters 3 and 4, the author reviews Obama and Trump’s China policies from economic, political, and military angles to understand the general interactions between Washington and Beijing. Hong Kong’s social situations, such as the inaugurations of Hong Kong’s new chief executives and mainland China’s Xi Jinping and previous social unrest will also be discussed in this thesis. The author then introduces Obama and Trump’s respective responses to the Hong Kong situations after exploring the U.S.-Sino relations.\n\n\nFinally, the thesis analyzes why and how Obama and Trump had different responses to the Hong Kong situations by utilizing the model “Three Levels of Analysis.” By applying the “individual level,” “domestic level,” and “international level,” the author concludes that due to varying personality traits, decision-making styles, domestic opinions, Congress’ attitudes, business interests, and international structures, the American government shifts its traditional Hong Kong policy under the reign of the Trump administration.