Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/134136


Title: 台灣地方選舉投票參與因素之探討— 以2014與2018年台北、台中、高雄市長選舉為例
Who Votes in Taiwan's Local Elections? — Case Studies of Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung Mayor Elections in 2014 and 2018
Authors: 葉峯谷
Yeh, Fung-Ku
Contributors: 蔡佳泓
Tsai, Chi-Hung
葉峯谷
Yeh, Fung-Ku
Keywords: 投票參與
政治代表性
民主
地方選舉
Voting Participation
Political Representation
Democracy
Local Election
Date: 2021
Issue Date: 2021-03-02 14:44:40 (UTC+8)
Abstract: 投票,是民主政治的核心象徵,也是民主制度的合法性重要來源。然而,全球自從第三波民主化後,正面臨投票率漸趨下降且對民主不滿意度漸趨上升的雙重趨勢。本研究指出,過去投票參與行為的研究,多從社會學途徑、社會心理學途徑、經濟學途徑等面向來進行探討,卻少有人從民主政治的核心概念—政治代表性做討論。另一方面,我國關於投票參與行為的研究,不僅相對更缺乏理論面之討論,選擇之研究個案也多從全國選舉(例如:總統、立法委員)的投票參與行為切入,少見對於地方選舉之投票參與行為研究,故引起本研究「台灣地方選舉投票參與因素之探討—以2014與2018年台北、台中、高雄市長選舉為例」之動機。
本研究一方面從代表性的危機(Crisis of Representation)開始探討政治代表性理論,綜合Pitkin(1967)、Mansbridge(2003)與Rehfeld(2019)等人對政治代表性的概念界定後,介紹了承諾式代表、預期式代表、陀螺儀代表以及空降式代表等不同概念,並採取Hobolt and Hoerner(2019)、Matsusaka(2015)等人對於代表性的測量方式形成本研究的操作性定義。
另一方面,本研究分別從社會學途徑、社會心理學途徑、經濟學途徑等面向整理關於投票參與行為之研究變數,共歸納出個人資源變數、動員變數、社會網絡變數、理性選擇變數與社會心理變數,作為本研究之控制變數,並與代表性變數整合之後進行投票參與行為勝算對數迴歸分析。
分析結果顯示,在我國的地方選舉中,民眾確實會因為政治代表性變數而影響其投票參與行為,尤其是若控制其他變數的條件下,當民眾認知到候選人有回應其重要議題者,投票參與行為在統計上呈現顯著偏高。因此,本研究認為,政治代表性對投票參與行為的研究未來勢必有繼續深化研究的價值。另一方面,本研究選擇地方選舉作為研究對象,也因政治代表性變數而對地方選舉有所啟發。若說全國選舉是認同的選舉,那麼地方選舉就可說是議題需求的選舉。
本研究另外亦有發現部分控制變數對我國地方選舉投票參與行為具備相對全面的影響,例如:具備前次選舉有投票、認為選舉是公民責任、年齡增長、有政治興趣等變數特性的民眾,其投票參與行為在統計上呈現顯著偏高。
整體而言,本研究關注重點在於我國地方選舉的投票參與行為,核心貢獻在於引入政治代表性概念進行測量,並得到統計上的顯著意義支持。本研究的限制同樣也在於過去投票參與行為極少引用政治代表性來評估其影響,故未來的研究仍有持續精進政治代表性對投票參與行為影響之測量的空間。
Voting is the core symbol of democratic politics and an important source of the legitimacy of the democratic system. However, since the third wave of democratization, the world is facing a dual trend of declining turnout and increasing dissatisfaction with democracy. This research points out that in the past, the research of voting behavior was mostly conducted from the perspectives of Sociology, Social Psychology, and Economics, but few people discussed the core concept of democratic politics-Political Representation.
On the other hand, the research of voting behavior in Taiwan is not only relatively lacking in theoretical discussion, but the selected research cases are also mostly cut from the voting behavior of national elections (such as the President, legislators), and voting in local elections is rare. These reasons led to the motivation of this research " Who Votes in Taiwan's Local Elections? — Case Studies of Taipei, Taichung, and Kaohsiung Mayor Elections in 2014 and 2018".
On the one hand, this research discusses the theory of political representation from Crisis of Representation after integrating the concept of political representation defined by Pitkin (1967), Mansbridge (2003) and Rehfeld (2019). Different concepts such as Promissory Representation, Anticipatory Representation, Gyroscopic Representation and Surrogate Representation was introduced, and Hobolt and Hoerner (2019), Matsusaka (2015) and others have adopted the Political Representation measurement methods to form the operational definition of this research.
On the other hand, this study sorts out the research variables on voting participation from the aspects of Sociology, Social Psychology, and Economics, and summarizes the variables of personal resources, mobilization, social network, rational choice, and society. psychological variables, as the control variables of this study, are integrated with representatiion variables to perform logistic regression analysis of the voting participation behavior.
The analysis results show that in Taiwan’s local elections, the people will indeed affect their voting behavior due to political representation variables, especially if other variables are controlled, when the people realized that the candidates have responded to their important issues, their voting participation behavior is statistically significantly higher. Therefore, this study believes that the research of political representation on voting participation is bound to have the value of continuing to deepen the research in the future. On the other hand, this study chooses local elections as the research object, which also inspires local elections due to political representation variables. If the national elections are identity elections, then the local elections can be said to be elections that demand the topic.
This study also found that some control variables have a relatively comprehensive impact on voting participation in local elections in Taiwan. For example, if people who have the characteristics of voting in the previous election, thinking that the election is a civic responsibility, ageing, and political interest, their voting participation behavior is statistically significantly higher other ones.
On the whole, the focus of this research is on voting participation in local elections in Taiwan. The core contribution is to introduce the concept of political representation for measurement, and get statistically significant support. The limitation of this study is also that in the past, voting participation rarely cited political representation to evaluate its impact. Therefore, future research still has room for continuous improvement in measuring the impact of political representation on voting participation.
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