分離運動與私外交：印度與菲律賓衝突、調停與和平過程之比較

Abstract

武裝分裂主義運動的研究（詳見文獻綜述）是一個複雜的過程。衝突涉及各個方面，例如衝突的起源、軌跡、升級、僵持期、談判、爭端解決與衝突後建設和平。關於分離主義運動的研究主要集中在戰鬥和衝突後建設和平戰略上，學者主要分析危機的影響及其對平民和武裝部隊的挑戰。本研究以印度阿薩姆聯合解放陣線（ULFA）與菲律賓莫洛民族解放陣線（MNLF）為例，旨在研究調停者（第三方談判者）在種族衝突中干預的作用，並給予調停者在維持和平中所付出的努力，給予適當的評價。在以前的研究中，缺乏關於預防衝突以及一旦簽署和平協議後應關注事項的研究，也鮮少對印度及菲律賓的衝突及和平進程進行研究，這使本論文中研究的案例，具獨特性。\n 本論文中運用了跨個案比較來解析，並著重於私人外交及在種族衝突中的和平營造，再藉由田野採訪調查、檔案研究、引用過往的學術著作等，得到了以下的結論。 首先，本研究認為，眾多第三方調停者之間的協調，對於和平維護以及簽屬和平協議後的監督的必要性。 此外，調停者的地位與權力在確定和平協議的走向最具影響力。 本論文也說明，調停者的人際關係以及地理位置，影響了他們扮演調停者的動機。\n 在某些案例中，具有相同文化根源且在地理位置上接近衝突的調停者，會主動介入調停，並將協助調停事務視為其道德責任。 最後，調停者介入時機至為重要。 調停者可以及早意識到引發衝突的徵兆，並在衝突開始之前，向政府提出建言，以確保和平。\n關鍵字：分離主義運動、民族衝突、調停者、協調、地位與權力、地理位置、介入時機

The study of armed separatist movements (see in the literature review) is a complex process. A conflict involves various aspects, such as its origin, trajectory, escalation, the period of stalemate, negotiation, dispute settlement, and post-conflict peacebuilding. Studies on separatist movements have mostly focused on the strategies of fighting and post-conflict peacebuilding. Researchers have mainly analyzed the crisis`s impact and its challenges to the civilians and armed forces. By taking the case of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), this research aims to examine the role of mediator (3rd party negotiators) interventions in ethnic conflicts and give the mediators the proper credit for their efforts to attain peace. In the previous studies, there has been a lack of research on conflict prevention and what aspects to focus on once a peace agreement has been signed. There has been less research comparing the ethnic conflicts and the peace process involved in India and the Philippines. The cases focused on the thesis are unique in themselves.\nThis dissertation adopts a cross-case comparison to answer the puzzle and focusing on private diplomacy and peacemaking in ethnic conflicts. By conducting in-field interviews, archival research, and using the previous scholarly works, the dissertation came out with the following conclusion. First, the research argues that coordination among the multiple third-party mediators is necessary to maintain peace on the ground and watchdog for the post-peace agreement deals. Furthermore, it is argued that the mediator`s position and power are the most influential in determining the peace deal`s direction. This thesis suggests that a mediator`s connection and geographical location influence their motives for acting as a mediator.\nIn some cases, a mediator who shares the same cultural roots and geographically close to the conflict comes forward to mediate, taking it as their moral responsibility. Finally, the timing of the intervention by the mediators is essential. A mediator can identify the early signs of the conflict and bring those concerns to the government to have peace before the conflict begins.\n\nKeywords: Separatist movements, Ethnic conflicts, Mediators, Coordination, Position and Power, Geographical location, Timing of the intervention