戰略三角互動對俄中關係的影響

Abstract

本文的目的，主要是在透過系統研究途徑探討蘇聯瓦解之後，戰略三角政治對俄中關係發展的影響，藉以了解俄羅斯對中國政策的動因及其侷限。在這段期間，我們看到俄中關係從疏遠猜忌，發展為戰略協作夥伴關係。本文認為，此一發展，一方面是由於受到俄羅斯內部政治生態變遷的衝擊，同時也是由於受到國際體系戰略三角互動轉移的影響。蘇聯瓦解後，北約組織向東歐節節進逼，使俄羅斯的安全備受威脅。在此同時，中國和美國也因為台灣問題以及其他問題而發生齟齬。此一戰略三角互動的發展，逐漸把俄羅斯和中國推向同一陣線，以共同抗衡美國獨霸世局的咄咄逼人。而俄中戰略協作夥伴關係的建立，使得台海情勢的勢力均衡，也間接受到了不可忽視的影響。

The purpose of this study is to explore the dynamics and constraints of Russian policy toward China during the period immediately after the Soviet Union`s collapse. In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union,the Sino-Russian relationship has undergone a transformation from a marriageof convenience to a strategic partnership. This change has come about in many respects because of changes that occurred within the co-relationship ofstrategic triangle politics.In the early 1990s, the Russian foreign policy establishment was wedded to the idea that Russia`s future lay in establishing firm bonds to the West. The Atlanticists, who controlled the establishment, turned their backs on Asia. By the mid-1990s, however, it became obvious that the Russia`s salvation would not be found entirely in the West. The enlargement of NATO eastward and the Sino-US dispute over Taiwan issue paved the way for strategic cooperation between Russian and China. This development provided the opening that the other major faction within the foreign policy establishment, the Eurasianists, needed to coopt the foreign policy agenda. The Eurasianists, whose major proponents include Minister of Foreign Affairs Primakov, argue that Russia needs a more balanced foreign policy and that significant benefits, especially in this time of trouble and reform, can be found in the east, in Asia. Therefore, the preconditions for strategic cooperation already exist in Sino- Russian relations. Simultaneously, strategic cooperation also presupposes a mutual resistance of the allied countries to a third force or coalition of forces, threatening their national security. In this regard, the West could be fill the role as the \"great threat\" of the future.