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https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/23293
題名: | Prediction of Bird Flu A(H5N1) Outbreaks in Taiwan by Online Auction: Experimental Results | 作者: | Chen,Shu-Heng;Wang,Sun-Chong ;Tseng,Jie-Jun ;Li,Sai-Ping | 關鍵詞: | avian influenza;futures exchange;market | 日期: | 2006 | 上傳時間: | 9-Jan-2009 | 摘要: | The ability of accurate epidemic prediction facilitates early preparation for the disease and minimizes losses due to any strikes. We devised a platform on the Web for users to exchange their information / opinion on possible avian flu outbreaks in Taiwan. The likelihood of the first human infection of bird flu in Taiwan in, say, December 2005 is securitized in the form of a futures contract. Incentives are introduced via tournament: users trade the futures in the market on our Web server in order to win the awards in the end of the tournament. We ran such a tournament during the period between December 2005 and February 2006. Results of the futures’ prices correctly predicted no outbreaks of bird flu among the residents in Taiwan \r\nduring the 3-month period, suggesting that the design of the futures exchange on the Web be a useful tool of event forecasting. | 關聯: | New Mathematics and Natural Computation,2(3),271-279 | 資料類型: | article | DOI: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S1793005706000567 |
Appears in Collections: | 期刊論文 |
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