322事件看台股期貨市場之流動性風險與系統性風險及短期投資折扣率之估算--從2004年總統大選後

Abstract

民國93年3月22日，我國期貨市場發生一開盤後隨即跌停，而後無量下跌，引發我國期貨市場產生流動性風險及系統性危機之事件，此事件本研究將之簡稱為「322事件」。本研究首先將透過時間的推進來說明引發322事件之原因、發生經過，以及在此次事件中，為何會引發我國期貨市場之流動性風險及系統性危機之主要原因。本研究發現主要是因為在3月20日總統大選前，大多數的期貨交易人均預期選後的股市會有一波漲幅，故過份建立期貨多頭部位，但是經過了3月19日的槍擊總統一案以及3月20日的選舉爭議，都讓民眾對未來充滿不確定性，以致在3月22日一開盤便委賣遠大於委買，期貨成交量萎縮，期貨交易人損失慘重，保證金嚴重不足，而引發流動性風險及系統性危機。\r\n 而後，期貨主管機關為因應金融自由化及國際化，目前正研擬開放多種店頭市場金融商品供期貨商自營操作，但開放後期貨商勢必將承擔更高之市場風險，主管機關應該如何因應成了開放前最重要之課題。資本適足率係主管機關在監理期貨商經營是否健全時的第一道防線，故本研究便建構一新模型，用以估算欲開放之新種金融商品的短期投資折扣率，本研究並以台指選擇權為例，透過本模型估算其最適之短期投資折扣率，結果與目前期貨交易所所規範之40％相去不遠。\r\n 最後，本研究提出數點建議，以期未來再度發生類似於322事件時，能夠降低我國期貨市場面臨之流動性風險及系統性危機。同時，也建議期貨主管機關未來在設算金融商品之短期投資折扣率時，能夠依循一具合理原則性之模型估算，避免未來當開放多種金融商品後，產生彼此間原則相抵觸之問題。

In 2004, Taiwan’s future market suffered both serious liquidity risk and systematic risk. At March 22nd in 2004, the Taiwan Future Index fall down and touched the maximum limit－7% suddenly. The volume of future market was extremely low. This paper called this event as “322 event.”\r\n This paper has two parts. First the paper will illustrate the 322 event. What caused the 322 event? And how the 322 event happened? This paper will seek these answers. We found that the main reasons to cause the liquidity risk and systematic risk are too many investors bought futures. This was because they believed after the 2004 President election, the Taiwan’s stock market would rise to celebrate. At March 19th, the President Chen Shui-Bian encountered a shot murder. At March 20th, some serious dispute took place and made our society was full of insecurity. Investors began concern the stock market would be uncertain. They didn’t buy any futures like before, but in contrast they started to sell it.\r\n The another aspect in this paper is to construct a model. In order to follow up the liberalization and globalization, the government authority plans to open more derivatives for the futures corporations to invest. But how do the government authorities monitor these futures corporations becomes an important lesson. This paper will also seek the answers through constructing a model using VaR model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio. Then this paper uses Taiwan Stock Option as an example examining whether the model is useful. The short-term investment discount ratio of the stock option by model is 40.89%. This outcome is much closed to 40%, the regulated discount ratio.\r\n Finally, this paper provides several advices in order to diminish the liquidity risk and systematic risk when futures market will suffer what similar to 322 event in the future. And this paper gives some information to supervisors about how to construct a model to estimate the short-term investment discount ratio so that the ratio is ensured following a logical principle.