人民幣國際化問題之探討

Abstract

中國在1978年採行改革開放的政策後，經濟實力呈現大幅增強的趨勢。在對外貿易及吸引外資投入等方面，中國的表現也十分耀眼，其不僅在2002年時成為全球第四大貿易國，更成為世界上最多外資投入的國家。若單純以經濟力量作為考慮的條件，中國只要能持續保持穩定的經濟成長，人民幣要成為國際貨幣是可以期待的。\\r中國目前僅允許經常帳的自由兌換，在金融帳方面仍有諸多的限制。亞洲金融風暴的發生，也使中國對金融帳開放的態度趨於保守。2004年4月，中國政府宣佈將於2010年允許金融帳的自由兌換。但在開放金融帳前，中國要如何因應人民幣升值與經營績效不佳等問題，這些均有可能使人民幣邁向國際化的時程拉長。 China’s explosive growth during the past twenty years following the onset of economic reforms in the late 1970s is a major event in global history. When compared to the United States, Japan, Germany, and other countries, the data relative to economic size suggest that China is a very the significant economy in the world, thus fulfilling one of the key criteria for the Renminbi to be chosen as international money. In 1996, China accepted Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement to establish its so-called current account convertibility. Nevertheless, the liberalization of the financial account is more complex than that of the current account, as it generally requires the healthiness of financial markets and the soundness of exchange rate system. Currently, the non-performing loans held by the big four banks is a main impediment for China’s financial account convertibility. Furthermore, how to solve the problems, which have resulted from the renminbi appreciation, is another obstacle. For China, the goal of full convertibility is probably still quite far in the future.