1,000銀行海外擴張的策略對當地銀行的影響及金融中心的吸引力(I)

Abstract

本計劃研究全球1,000大銀行在全球25個城市海外擴張從1990年~2006年 (主要以設立分行為主) 的動態過程，要建立一個龐大的全球的銀行分行資料庫，即銀行到哪一個城市設分行及從何城市撒走的資料庫。如此則有各銀行海外擴張的紀錄，這資料來自每一期A-Z 6大本 The Banker`s Almanac，共分3年分別建置完成：第一年：1990，1995，2000，2005 第二年：1996~1999，2001~2004 第三年：1991~1994，2006~2007 本計劃希望對產官學均有貢獻。在產方面，我國的大銀行如果知道世界其他大銀行海外擴張的策略，亦可參考學習其成長過程；在官方面，決策者如果瞭解別的城市金融中心，吸引全球大銀行來進駐方式，即可瞭解目前台灣目前在全球的位置；在學方面，有了全球大銀行在海外擴張資料，我們可以回答下列6個前人回答不完整，或無法回答的問題。 1、 研究為何銀行要到國外設立分行？ 2、 何種金融中心會吸引銀行去該地設分行？ 3、 城市金融中心的成立有無空間群聚效果(spatially clustered)？或競爭效果？ 4、 外國銀行對當地銀行的績效影響。 5、 世界1,000大銀行海外擴張的策略，不同類型的大銀行的策略有無不同？ 6、 我們研究銀行到海外增設據點，會否使該國銀行市場結構改變，即競爭程度改變？這大銀行全球擴張的資料庫的建立將有助台灣邁向全球一流金融研究中心。

This paper is the first attempt to study multinational banks’ foreign direct investment (FDI) in ten Asian cities from 1990 to 2005. The detailed data of multinational banks’ FDI in Asian cities has been collected and divide into foreign bank number (the number of multinational banks) and foreign bank office (the number of overseas offices by multinational banks). We analyze the pattern and investigate the determinants factors of multinational banks’ FDI in Asian cities by using gravity model. Our empirical results show that the economic sizes of home and host countries are positively correlated with the foreign bank number and the foreign bank office. And the distance between home and host countries is negatively correlated with the foreign bank number and foreign bank office. These results are consistent with the prediction of gravity model. By extending the model, we also find that bilateral trade value between home and host countries, fewer restrictions in banking and sound regulation quality of host country and a relatively larger number of international large banks from the home country are also positively correlated with foreign bank number and foreign bank office. The data shows that the FDI of multination banks did not decrease significantly because of the Asia financial crisis in 1997. But the determinant factors of FDI had been changed slightly. The major differences are the economic freedom in banking and the governance of host country. The economic freedom becomes significantly positive after crisis. As for the governance of host country, the dimension of government effectiveness is important before the crisis, but the dimension of control of corruption is the determinant factor after the crisis. Those results can be a reference for policy makers while planning polices to promote a city to be an international or regional financial center.