邁向權力核心之路：一九八七年以後中共文人領袖的政治流動

Abstract

近年來，中共高層新老交替已經朝著制度化的方向發展。根據這個觀點，本文歸納十三大以來各屆領導班子甄補特性的演變。本文首先歸納分析一九八七年以後57位文職政治局常委、政治局委員（含政治局候補委員）在政治流動上的特徵，如年齡限制、政治局委員資歷、中委會資歷、年齡優勢、省級黨政一把手資歷、交流經驗等等。爲了了解這些因素在中共領導人甄補過程中的影響，本文將這些因素歸類爲晉升領導人的基本條件或加分條件，以十七大爲例行測試，最後，本文據此推估二○一二年可能擔任政治局委員的人選和政治局常委的人選。

In recent years, the process of elite transition in the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has become increasingly institutionalized. This paper examines the leadership changes that occurred in each session of the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, beginning with the 13th Congress in 1987. We first examine several factors, including age limits, central posts previously held, and experience as a provincial leader, that can explain the political moves of all fifty-seven individuals who have served as full or alternating members of the Politburo since 1987. This paper then uses these factors as indicators to identify about thirty frontrunners for the 18th Politburo and its Standing Committee, due for election in 2012.