Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/63586
題名: | 中國國家能力研究與崩潰論失準討論 | 其他題名: | A Study Approach of State Capacity towards China Collapse Thesis | 作者: | 初國華; 張昌吉 Chu, Gwo-Hua ; Chang, Chun-Chig |
貢獻者: | 勞工所 | 關鍵詞: | 中國崩潰論;中國預測;國家能力;黨國體制 China Collapse Thesis;Predict China;State Capacity;Party State Regime |
日期: | 2013 | 上傳時間: | 24-Jan-2014 | 摘要: | 天安門事件後的中國崩潰論,直到九○年代的中後期,仍在國際間不絕於耳。但若對照當今的中國崛起,則這都屬理論預測或經驗判斷對事實的落差或預測失準,這是值得研究的。至於,如何解釋與調適崩潰論與現實中國的落差,並嘗試改善對中國預測的模型,則是本文之研究目的。共產國家國際結構骨牌分析以及政治保守、經濟改革的崩潰預測,其推論過程都忽略中共因素的反應與抵制,以及中共回應外界變遷與挑戰的能力。本文擬從國家能力觀點對上述議題作分析。 Since the appearance of the China collapse theory after the Tiananmen incident, discussions over the Middle Kingdom`s collapse have been incessant. However, compared with China`s rise today, it is interesting to observe the theory`s failed prediction and misinterpretation of empirical evidences. This article aims to close the gulf between theory and reality and improve on models that attempt to forecast China`s future. Domino theories and pessimistic predictions about communist states fail to take into account the CCP`s ability to react and respond to changes and challenges from the outside world. This article tackles the issue from the approach of state capacity theory. |
關聯: | 全球政治評論, 43,41-70 | 資料類型: | article |
Appears in Collections: | 期刊論文 |
Show full item record
Google ScholarTM
Check
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.