引進外籍勞工對台灣經濟影響之再分析

Abstract

本研究建立一個可計算一般均衡模型，探討引進外籍勞工對臺灣經濟之影響。本研究的理論架構係結合了Brecher and Choudri (1987)、Brecher (1992)與Basu (1998)等之效率工資模型。本文首先估計台灣實質工資水準向下調整之僵固性。本文實證結果發現，台灣勞動市場實質工資與失業水準不僅呈反向變動關係且其彈性絕對值不大，此意味台灣勞動市場實質工資具有相當程度之向下調整的僵固性。本文模擬結果顯示，台灣引進低技術外籍勞工對其實質工資水準不但沒有不利影響，反而可能帶來正面效益。此外，台灣引進低技術外籍勞工對其失業水準之負面影響有限。惟台灣引進低技術外籍勞工對其實質國內生產毛額雖有明顯助益，對其實質國民生產毛額則沒有十分顯著提升作用。此結果與過去使用充分就業模型或最低工資模型之實證研究有相當程度差異。

This paper establishes a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impact of importing foreign workers on Taiwan. The efficiency wage models of Brecher and Choudri (1987), Brecher (1992) and Basu (1998) are incorporated into the analytical framework. The empirical findings of this paper indicate that Taiwan`s real wages not only are inversely related to its unemployment level but also have a small absolute value of elasticity, which suggests that there exits considerable downward rigidity in its real wages. The simulation results of this paper reveal that Taiwan`s real wages of the unskilled labor were not negatively affected by its imported unskilled foreign workers. In addition, the long-run impact of the imported foreign workers in Taiwan on its unemployment rate was rather limited. Moreover, the imported unskilled labor seemed to stimulate Taiwan`s real gross domestic product considerably, its real gross national product was not increased significantly. These results are in sharp contrast with those in previous studies employing full-employment models or minimum wage models.