強權敵對關係對東亞區域主義之影響

Abstract

冷戰後東亞區域主義的發展迅速，但其深化程度仍深受區域強權之間敵對關係遺緒的影響。本文藉分析近來美、中、日三國的互動以及東協的對策，勾勒出政治敵對影響東亞區域主義發展的動因及途徑。首先，美國的單邊主義、中國崛起與日本因「正常化」而漸右傾之外交策略，使原即因意識形態、區域安全觀、相互投射的認知與權力競逐等歧異，而影響三者實質合作以深化區域制度的可能性更低。其次，小國不會因強權間的敵對與競爭而往任一方靠攏，反而促其更重視區域多邊制度及其效用。尤其是東協加三與東亞高峰會進程的發展，強化小國集體合作對大國的議價能力。第三，小國仍選擇性地在群體合作與個別利益間尋求平衡。故東協的存續即植基於不強迫其成員在制度化與國家利益之間作選擇。最後，三強權外交戰略操作的方向，將持續影響區域主義的發展，無論導向匯合深化或更加分歧。

The development of regionalism in East Asia has speeded up in post-Cold War era. Nevertheless, it is limited by the legacy of political rivalry among the great regional powers. This paper intends to examine causality between such rivalries and regionalism by focusing on USA-China-Japan interactions and ASEAN’s response, in order to explain why and how does rivalries affect the prospects for regionalism. First, the development of effective regional institutionalism is precluded by ideological differences, security tensions, mutual suspicion and geopolitical competition between the three powers. These rivalries have been exacerbated by American unilateralism, China’s radical emergence, and Japan’s redirection for a more prominent international role. Second, tension and competition between three powers, by contrast, does not mean that the region can be divided into their spheres of influence. Conversely, it has created a resurgence in the efficacy and appeal of regional institutions. As the ASEAN Plus Three and the East Asian Summit processes grow, the ASEAN states’ bargaining power in dealing with great powers is greatly enhanced within their collaborative institutions. Intriguingly, third, the ASEAN states may work competitive pressures to their own advantage by overriding their cooperative inclinations. ASEAN has proven to be durable, but never been able to risk pushing its members in choosing between institutional effectiveness and individual state interest. Finally, any further differences in how three great powers conduct their foreign strategies will cause intra- regional cooperation to converge or diverge as time progresses.