DSpace Collection:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100831
2024-03-29T10:20:31Z中國能源與俄羅斯合作的挑戰與機會
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100901
題名: 中國能源與俄羅斯合作的挑戰與機會
摘要: 中國經濟的快速成長已使得能源安全成為一項重要的議題。能源安全成為觀注的焦點,部分是由油價高漲以致能源市場極度緊俏所驅使,另一部分則是中國為了驅動未來數十年經濟成長而對能源的基本需求所使然。從此觀點來看,中國必須儘快利用各種外國的能源資源以分散和增加它的能源來源。在過去10年,俄羅斯的石油和天然氣產業在全球能源市場,特別是在歐洲,扮演了重要的角色。然而,東西伯利亞和俄羅斯的遠東地區在地理上鄰近中國,而且已被証實了擁有大量的能源庫藏。這個地區已成為最可能滿足中國能源需求的選擇。本篇文章的目的在於探索中國在能源產業與俄羅斯合作的挑戰與機會。研究發現雙方合作進展的遲緩是因為某些障礙,特別是在價格談判部分;而石油與天然氣國際價格的滑落讓中國有機會啟動中俄間的能源合作。再者,由於制度化的機制,中國在東北亞國家中處於比較有利的地位以擴大和俄羅斯的能源聯繫。同時,文裏也發現中國從雙方的能源合作裏獲得不相稱地利益。; China`s rapid economic growth has made energy security a significant issue. The focus on energy security is driven partly by an exceedingly tight energy market / high oil prices, and partly by China`s fundamental need for energy to power the next decades of economic growth. From this point of view, China must take advantage of various foreign energy resources as soon as possible, in order to diversify and increase its sources of energy.In the past decade, Russia`s oil and natural gas industries have played a major role in the global energy market, particularly in Europe. However, eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East enjoy relative geographical proximity to China, and have been proven to possess vast energy reserves. This region has become the most likely option for meeting China`s energy needs.The purpose of this paper is to explore the challenges and opportunities for Sino-Russian cooperation in the energy sector. It finds that the pace of progress has been slow owing to certain obstacles, especially in the area of price negotiation. The fall of the international price of oil and gas has given China the opportunity to jump-start Sino-Russian energy cooperation. Moreover, as a result of institutional mechanisms, China is better positioned than other countries in Northeast Asia (NEA) to expand energy ties with Russia. Also, it was found that China stands to disproportionately benefit from bilateral energy cooperation.2016-08-30T07:01:08Z國際定期航商於俄羅斯營運之政治風險分析
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100900
題名: 國際定期航商於俄羅斯營運之政治風險分析
摘要: 俄羅斯貨櫃運輸市場規模不大,但由於擁有眾多的貨櫃港口,其發展前景特別引人關注,許多國際貨櫃航商看好俄羅斯廣大的市場潛力。但由於蘇聯才解體不久,國家的政治比不上已開發國家穩定,海運政策及管理規則亦不明確,國際航商在俄羅斯的營運可能會遭受到來自主要為政府方面之影響產生損失的不確定性,即產生政治風險。本文以國際定期航商為研究對象,透過文獻分析法及專家訪談方式,辨識出國際航商於俄羅斯設立營運據點所面臨政治風險之二大風險因素構面,七大風險主評估準則及二十九項風險次評估準則。經利用層級分析法進行風險衡量後,發現國際航商認為可能會產生最嚴重損失之風險因素為『貨物之海關通關政策』,其他依序為『碼頭作業時間管理政策』、『碼頭設備更新政策』、『加入世界貿易組織政策』、『碼頭船席政策』、『貨櫃場站的聯外交通建設政策』。最後,本文針對國際航商認為最重要的前六項風險因素提出風險管理策略,提供航商於俄羅斯設立營運據點時之風險管理參考,增加營運利潤。; The purpose of this research is to identify the political risks of international liner shipping while they set up operation site in Russia, and apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ARP) model to evaluate the risk extent of these risks. According to historical literatures and expert interview, the risk hierarchical structures of the international liner shipping were constructed. This paper identified two risk factors, seven main criteria, and twenty-nine sub-criteria. This research further applies AHP model to measure the risk extent of these risks by the survey of the experts` questionnaires. After investigating and analyzing, this research found out: ”the policy of customs clearance” is the most importance risk of the international liner shipping. Finally, the research proposes the risk management strategies against more severe risks. The result of this study would contribute strategic references to international liner shipping.2016-08-30T07:00:55Z普欽在俄中美三角關係中的戰略選擇
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100899
題名: 普欽在俄中美三角關係中的戰略選擇
摘要: 基於文化與歷史因素,俄羅斯的國家發展一直都是傾向西方。本文中論道,美國對俄羅斯的刻板態度與北約東擴都令俄羅斯深感不安。因此,東亞對俄羅斯抗衡西方深具意義。尤其是中國的崛起已成為俄羅斯對外戰略選擇的重要參考。然而俄羅斯終究遇到兩難-與中國親善交好,將會幫助中國相對提升其國際地位;卻有傷自身的國家利益。本質上,俄羅斯對中國的崛起也甚感不安,這使得其對中的親善政策持有疑慮與保留。歐巴馬總統由單極轉向多極的國際政治觀,提供普欽一個在俄中美三角關係重新定位的空間,然而相對於美國政府嚴厲批評普欽選舉的不民主;中國政府卻是全力支持普欽。對比之下,在普欽總理任內或2012一旦選上總統後,俄中美三角關係無疑應會向俄中傾斜。; Russia`s foreign policy has been Western-oriented due to historical and cultural reasons. This paper argues that the US`s attitude towards Russia and the increasing expansion of NATO to Eastern Europe leads Russians to feel insecure. Consequently, East Asia has become significant to Russia in coping with the West. Above all, China`s rise is predominant in Russia`s policy options. Nevertheless, Russia will finally encounter a dilemma that rapprochement with China may help improve China`s relative position in world politics. In essence, Russia`s anxieties toward China`s rapid rise make Russia`s rapprochement toward China skeptical and reserved. The new approach, taken by President Obama, shifting from unipolar into multipolar global politics, offers Putin a new arena to re-identify Russia itself in the Russia-China-US triangle. The US government`s fierce criticism of the Russian government being undemocratic during the elections process, along with the Chinese government`s full support of Putin will make the Russia-China-US triangle naturally tilted toward Russo-Chinese side during Putin`s office of premiership or for a certain time if he is elected in the presidential election 2012.2016-08-30T07:00:39Z俄羅斯貨幣政策操作工具與操作目標間關係
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100898
題名: 俄羅斯貨幣政策操作工具與操作目標間關係
摘要: 自1998年金融危機以來,抑制通貨膨脹成為俄羅斯中央銀行的主要目標。在國際能源價格居高不下的情況下,油元持續湧入俄國,貨幣供給量也節節上揚,因而造成通貨膨脹的壓力。在盧布匯價走揚,油價上升趨緩,最低工資調升等政策的交錯影響下,俄羅斯央行抑制通貨膨脹的政策難度更高,勢必使得俄央行加大貨幣政策的強度。根據俄羅斯中央銀行以往的操作經驗,控制貨幣總量 (M2) 的方式依舊是俄國的主要政策手段。具體的政策工具大致包括:貨幣市場與公債市場的積極沖銷,利用穩定基金吸收財政盈餘,緊縮對俄羅斯各級政府與銀行業的信用;而受限於金融市場尚未健全,公開市場操作工具依然扮演次要的角色。透過VAR/VECM檢驗公開市場操作工具影響貨幣政策操作目標的因果關係,本文發現CBR貨幣操作工具對其操作目標間的影響力相當有限。; Containing inflation has become the main objective of Central Bank of Russia (CBR) since the 1998 financial crisis. Following high energy prices in recent years, the increased influx of petrodollars has resulted in inflationary pressure. Under the interweaving influence of other factors, such as the steady appreciation of Russian Ruble, the slow but continuing rise in oil prices, and the minimum wage policy, curbing inflation has became a more complicated task for CBR. According to the past experience of CBR, controlling the growth of money supply (M2) remains the major monetary policies. Some specific policies include sterilized intervention in money and bond markets, the use of stabilization fund to absorb fiscal surpluses, and the tightening credits issued to all-level governments and banking sectors. However, due to the lack of efficient financial markets, open market operations still play a minor role. The paper uses VAR/VECM to test the causality between open market tools and their objectives, and proves the limited influence of the market tools on their objectives.2016-08-30T06:46:21Z