DSpace Collection:
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/1994
2024-03-29T11:34:38Z測量議題競選廣告策略之效果:實驗設計在網路調查平台上的應用
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/115085
題名: 測量議題競選廣告策略之效果:實驗設計在網路調查平台上的應用
摘要: 本研究假定政黨有強烈動機透過議題操作來贏得選票,且將該動機落實在競選廣告策略上。在該假定下,本研究旨在利用網路調查平台進行實驗設計,分析和議題所有權相關的三種競選廣告策略之效果—即探討利用「議題所有權」、「議題聚合」、及「議題入侵」等三項概念所設定之政黨議題平面廣告,究竟會帶給選民怎樣的影響。換言之,本研究旨在評估根據議題操作所擬定的競選廣告是否有功效?而就算有效果,是對誰的效果比較大?評估影響的項目包括選民對於政黨處理政策議題的評價及政黨的整體支持度滿意度。本研究主要有以下兩點發現:第一、議題所有權廣告對於政黨在該議題的評價,有正面的效果。然而,議題入侵及議題聚合的廣告策略,對於能否正面提升政黨在該議題的評價,則沒有肯定的答案。第二、不論是何種議題廣告,都無法顯著提升政黨的支持度。另外,針對研究方法,本研究透過網路調查平台進行實驗設計,操作容易,可為日後實驗研究法參考及應用。; By assuming that a political party has a strong incentive to gain votes via issue setting as part of its campaign strategy, this study utilizes experimental designs via Internet survey to explore the extent to which three issue-related campaign advertising strategies—namely, issue ownership, issue convergence, and issue trespassing, affect voters’ evaluations on parties’ abilities to handle issues as well as their overall supports toward parties. Our empirical findings are twofold: first, issue ownership strategy has positive impact on evaluation of parties’ abilities to handle issues owned by parties. Other strategies, including issue convergence and issue trespassing, do not have such impact. Second, none of the three strategies has any significant impact on voters’ overall supports toward parties. Additionally, our method shows that it is easy to implement experimental research design via an Internet survey platform and such method can be adopted for similar research purposes in the future.2017-12-08T07:00:57Z解析「台灣人/中國人」認同及其對兩岸關係的影響
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/115027
題名: 解析「台灣人/中國人」認同及其對兩岸關係的影響
摘要: 關於「台灣人/中國人」認同的測量,1992-2012年的資料顯示:台灣民眾認為自己是「台灣人」者,呈現逐年持續上升的趨勢,目前已有一半以上的民眾持「台灣人」認同;認為自己是「中國人」者已下降至不到4%;「雙重(都是)認同」則維持在四成上下的穩定趨勢。隨著近年來台灣政治的民主化與本土化意識的抬頭,此種變遷並不令人意外。但因為台灣民眾的認同中,交織著原生性血緣文化與建構性的政治因素,民眾可能是由不同角度來解讀此一問題,使得上述「中國人」、「台灣人」或「(二者)都是」的意涵,也變得相當複雜。再者,學界也發現此一「台灣人/中國人認同」變數,在解釋民眾的政治態度及投票行為,佔有相當重要的地位,但學者們對於此一變數的測量概念,卻也有各種不同的認定。因此,本研究將以2000-2012年之間的質性資料為研究素材,解析民眾對「中國人」、「台灣人」及「(二者)都是」內容的定義、探討整體認同的變遷過程及其可能原因,並釐清此一變數的測量意涵。此外,隨著1990年代兩岸開放交流之後,台灣的經濟及政治都受到兩岸關係的衝擊與牽引,然而台灣民眾的認同卻愈來愈傾向「台灣人」,此種變遷對兩岸未來政治發展的影響,也將是本研究的重點。; The identities of Taiwan’s inhabitants have undergone substantial changes during the past decade. Recently collected survey data have shown that more than half of the island residents have now possessed a Taiwanese identity, whereas less than 4% of them claim a Chinese identity. A steady number of citizens continue to hold a Dual identity, i.e., seeing themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese. Because Taiwan citizens’ identities have been shaped by both primordialist ties and constructionist efforts, the implication of changing identities on the island is a matter of academic debate. As identity is an important variable explaining the island citizens’ political attitudes and behaviors, its measurement also invites controversy. By employing qualitative data collected through focus group and in-depth interviews during the period of 2000-2012, the proposed research aims to explore the changing meanings of Taiwanese/Chinese/Dual identities. Empirical analysis has demonstrated that Taiwan citizens’ identity is an important determinant to their policy stands on the island’s future relations with China. The proposed study will also examine the implications of Taiwan residents’ identity change to future cross-Strait relations.2017-12-05T08:37:16Z測量議題競選廣告策略之效果:實驗設計在網路調查平台上的應用
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/111208
題名: 測量議題競選廣告策略之效果:實驗設計在網路調查平台上的應用
摘要: 本研究假定政黨有強烈動機透過議題操作來贏得選票,且將該動機落實在競選廣告策略上。在該假定下,本研究旨在利用網路調查平台進行實驗設計,分析和議題所有權相關的三種競選廣告策略之效果—即探討利用「議題所有權」、「議題聚合」、及「議題入侵」等三項概念所設定之政黨議題平面廣告,究竟會帶給選民怎樣的影響。換言之,本研究旨在評估根據議題操作所擬定的競選廣告是否有功效?而就算有效果,是對誰的效果比較大?評估影響的項目包括選民對於政黨處理政策議題的評價及政黨的整體支持度滿意度。本研究主要有以下兩點發現:第一、議題所有權廣告對於政黨在該議題的評價,有正面的效果。然而,議題入侵及議題聚合的廣告策略,對於能否正面提升政黨在該議題的評價,則沒有肯定的答案。第二、不論是何種議題廣告,都無法顯著提升政黨的支持度。另外,針對研究方法,本研究透過網路調查平台進行實驗設計,操作容易,可為日後實驗研究法參考及應用。 By assuming that a political party has a strong incentive to gain votes via issue setting as part of its campaign strategy, this study utilizes experimental designs via Internet survey to explore the extent to which three issue-related campaign advertising strategies—namely, issue ownership, issue convergence, and issue trespassing, affect voters’ evaluations on parties’ abilities to handle issues as well as their overall supports toward parties. Our empirical findings are twofold: first, issue ownership strategy has positive impact on evaluation of parties’ abilities to handle issues owned by parties. Other strategies, including issue convergence and issue trespassing, do not have such impact. Second, none of the three strategies has any significant impact on voters’ overall supports toward parties. Additionally, our method shows that it is easy to implement experimental research design via an Internet survey platform and such method can be adopted for similar research purposes in the future.2017-07-14T01:20:43Z再探全國性民調推估地方民意的可行性:應用改良式多層次貝氏定理估計模型及事後分層加權預測立法委員選舉結果
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/109765
題名: 再探全國性民調推估地方民意的可行性:應用改良式多層次貝氏定理估計模型及事後分層加權預測立法委員選舉結果
摘要: 本研究利用2016年大選前的民意調查資料,並採用多層次貝氏定理估計模型搭配分層加權的方式(multilevel regression and poststratification:MRP),預測73個區域立委選舉結果。具體來說,本文所採用的預測模式包含三個步驟:首先,透過基本人口特徵變數(性別、年齡、及教育程度)輔以選區層級的特徵,估計不同類型選民分別支持國民黨立委參選人及民進黨立委參選人的機率。其次,我們使用內政部2015年全國人口調查資料,求得每一個選區當中,不同類型選民的聯合機率分佈。最後,將各個選區內不同類型選民當中,支持國民黨立委參選人(及民進黨立委參選人)的成年人口數加總(每個選區皆含50種類型),並分別除以各選區的總成年人口數,以推估每一選區當中,國民黨立委參選人及民進黨立委參選人的得票率。在選區樣本數有限(平均約55個)的情況下,本研究仍能透過多層次統計模型及人口調查資料輔助,得出各選\n區政黨候選人得票率預測值與實際得票率之間的平均誤差值之絕對值僅約5個百分點。此外,本研究成功預測61個立委選區的選舉輸贏,與「未來事件交易所」的選舉預測結果相比較,僅落後一個選區。; This study uses pre-election national survey data and a method combining the Bayesian multilevel modeling approach with the population information for post-stratification(i.e., multilevel regression and post-stratification: MRP) to predict Legislative Yuan elections in the 73 singlemember districts. Specifically, our method is consisted of three steps: first, we construct a multilevel logistic regression model to estimate the vote choice variables for the Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidates, respectively, given demographics and districts of residence. Second, we post-stratify on all the variables in the model by using the joint population distribution of the demographic variables within each district. Third, we then combine the above two steps and estimate the mean of support for the KMT and DPP candidates in the district level. Given that each district only has about 55 samples on average, this study shows that MRP method can be regarded as an effective tool for election prediction, as the average absolute measurement error between the estimates and actual vote shares is just about 5 percentage\npoints. In a comparison with the pre-election districtlevel predictions issued by the prediction market“xFuture”, our estimates are almost as good as the results of “xFuture”.2017-05-18T01:48:43Z