DSpace Community: 選舉研究
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/70071
選舉研究2024-03-28T20:18:09Z雙底冊電話調查合併組合加權處理之比較分析
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146226
題名: 雙底冊電話調查合併組合加權處理之比較分析; A Comparative Analysis of Weighting Approaches for Dual-Frame Telephone Surveys
摘要: 隨著科技進步與時代變遷,近年來臺灣面臨單底冊電話樣本的涵蓋誤差日益增大問題,不論市話調查或手機調查;而雙底冊電話調查的施行應可有效降低此一缺失。惟有關雙底冊電話調查的資料合併策略與加權處理,當下臺灣學界仍莫衷一是。本文旨在利用臺灣學界甚少觸及的變異數與偏差,以2020年雙底冊電話調查的實務資料,來評比各類型雙底冊調查的合併組合在各種加權策略下的加權效果,包括重疊設計與篩選設計;此外,本文也進一步探討非等比例樣本配置的雙底冊電話調查在資料推估上的差異,提供實務應用參考。\n本文分析結果顯示:1.在雙底冊各自具有完整代表性且樣本數近乎等比例的條件下,採用一般的母體人口特徵變項來校正加權,不論是使用重疊設計或篩選設計來合併,因加權而增加的變異並不大,且僅事後分層組合估計的樣本估計值與其他合併組合有所差距。2.若雙底冊的樣本採用不等比例配置,以一個完整代表性底冊搭配另一個僅具有1/3或1/2樣本數的底冊,利用篩選設計、重疊設計的直接合併及有效樣本數合併等三種方式進行比較後發現,因應加權所衍生的加權耗損不大,而彼此之間在樣本估計值上的差異也很小。; With the rapid advancement of IT and the changing times, Taiwan has been facing increasing coverage error in single-frame telephone surveys (whether by landline or cell phone) in recent years. Dual-frame telephone surveys can effectively reduce this deficiency. However, there is still no consensus on how to weight dualframe telephone samples in Taiwan.\nThis study uses data from a 2020 dual-frame telephone survey to compare several popular weighting approaches. The impact of these approaches on the variance and bias in both single-frame and dual-frame samples, as well as in overlap and screener designs, is discussed. Additionally, this study examines the differences between the estimates of the non-proportion dual-frame sample allocation to provide practical recommendations.\nThe results indicate the following: (1) if the sample allocation of the dual-frame samples is in nearly equal proportions, minor differences occur in the weighting loss between the overlap and screener designs. Only the post-stratified estimating procedure reveals some differences in the estimates with other designs. (2) If the sample allocation of the dual-frame samples is in unequal proportions, such as one single-frame national sample and the others are only 1/3 or 1/2 of the former, then after calibration, the weighting loss is only slightly increased, and these approaches produce only tiny differences in the calibrated estimates between the combinations.2023-07-13T00:00:00Z立委屬性、媒體呈現與政治影響
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146225
題名: 立委屬性、媒體呈現與政治影響; How the Status of Legislators Influences Patterns of Media Coverage
摘要: 本文以第九屆立委為研究對象,使用立法院國會圖書館的新聞知識管理系統作為媒體資料來源,用內容分析法分析新聞媒體對於第九屆立委的報導取材與媒體呈現。依報導內容主題將立委的新聞區分成與立委職責直接相關的「專業話」、因其他兼任職位或品評政治時事有關的「政治話」,以及因應軟性政治新聞趨勢的個人「私房話」等三類新聞,探究影響立委新聞報導內容的差異因素,乃至對其連任勝選的影響。\n國會議員的媒體呈現,是立委和媒體兩造多重因素影響下的結果:既要考量立委追求曝光的動機或壓力,也需由媒體運作、媒體選材的角度考量新聞價值。影響國會議員媒體呈現數量的因素可分為外在結構因素和個別的條件策略。外在結構因素是指記者的新聞選材和敘事框架,個別的條件策略則包含國會議員的性別、任職資歷、幹部職位歷練、朝野政治結構、行政與立法關係等。本研究主要聚焦在立委個別條件對其媒體呈現與連任的影響。初步研究發現,立委不同的身分特徵會帶來不同的媒體呈現,但不是新聞曝光量越多就一定能成功連任,還需考慮新聞報導的類型性質。以第九屆立委為例,在三類新聞類型中,專業話新聞最能為立委連任增添勝算,政治話和私房話新聞則對立委連任無明顯助益。; This research found that the status of legislators brought about different patterns of media coverage during the 9th Legislative Yuan (2016-2020). It focuses on the news coverage by legislators and examines the patterns of the media coverage engendered by them. A news report database was adopted from the Congressional Library of the Legislative Yuan and context analysis was conducted. This approach divided legislators’ reports into three types: “Professional News,” directly related to the duties of legislators; “Political News,” related to extra political positions (ex.party whips) or current political affairs; and “Private News,” related to the personal life and non-political issues of the legislators. Differences in the patterns of the news coverage of legislators could have an impact on their re-election outcome.\nThis study found that media coverage was influenced by both the legislators and the media. Factors included the motivation or pressure by legislators for media exposure as well as the news value from the perspective of media operation and selection. The factors affecting the amount of media presence for legislators can be roughly divided into external structural conditions and personal messaging strategies. External structural factors refer to the selection of news materials and framework by journalists, while individual conditions include the gender, seniority, experience in cadre positions of individual legislators, and political structure and executive and legislative relations, among others. We found that the specific status of a legislator often led to a specific pattern of media coverage; however, more extensive media exposure did not necessarily lead to successful re-election.During the 9th Legislative Yuan, “Professional News” was the factor most likely to have a positive impact on re-election success, while “Political News” and “Private News” had little impact on the re-election success of legislators.2023-07-13T00:00:00Z1970年代國民黨派系替代政策重探:兼論1977年黨外崛起的因素
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146227
題名: 1970年代國民黨派系替代政策重探:兼論1977年黨外崛起的因素; A Re-examination of the factional substitution policy of the KMT in the 1970s: Factors that contributed to the rise of the outside of KMT in 1977
摘要: 本文以臺灣省議會為中心,藉由1972年和1977年兩次省議員選舉時,國民黨的提名策略和選舉結果,重新探討國民黨在1970年代推行的派系替代政策內涵,藉此修正。\n1972年地方選舉時,國民黨在縣市長選舉和臺灣省議員選舉全面推動派系替代政策,藉由拔擢青年才俊的名義,大規模淘汰地方派系背景的政治人物。其中,在臺灣省議員方面,主要是淘汰1968年以前當選的臺灣省議員,藉此打擊當時存在於臺灣省議會的跨縣市地方派系聯盟。在此政策下,已經擔任2屆以上的臺灣省議員大部分未能連任,臺灣省議會出現顯著的世代交替,原本以黃朝琴—許金德—陳新發、林頂立—蔡鴻文為首的兩大跨縣市地方派系聯盟就此瓦解,國民黨對臺灣省議會的控制力得到強化。雖然國民黨對地方派系的打壓,使該黨動員力顯著下降,卻因當時缺乏全國規模的反對勢力,未影響國民黨的政治基礎。\n1977年地方選舉時,國民黨仍繼續打壓地方派系,並進一步扶植無派系背景的國民黨員,此時地方派系的反彈已經不如1972年地方選舉,除了少數縣市之外,並未出現地方派系倒戈支持黨外的現象,而國民黨的動員能力已經回升。然而,當時黨外成功動員超過7%過去未投票的新選民,使國民黨遭遇前所未有的挫敗,甚至導致多名地方派系出身的臺灣省議員落選,臺灣也從此形成了具有全國動員能力的反對力量。; The Taiwan Provincial Council is the subject of this study. Based on the KMT`s nomination strategy and election results in the two provincial councilor elections in 1972 and 1977, it revisits and revises the KMT`s factional substitution policy of the 1970s.\nDuring the 1972 local elections, the KMT aggressively promoted factional replacement in the election of magistrates, mayors, and Taiwan Provincial Councilors. The KMT eliminated political figures with local factional backgrounds on a large scale in the name of promoting young talents. With respect to the Taiwan Provincial Councilors, the replacement was intended to eliminate Taiwan Provincial Councilors elected prior to 1968 in order to suppress the inter-county local faction that existed in the Taiwan Provincial Council at the time. Most Taiwan Provincial Councilors who had served for more than two terms were not re-elected, thereby generating a significant generational shift in the makeup of Taiwan Provincial Council. The KMT’s control over the Taiwan Provincial Council was thus strengthened. Despite a significant reduction in mobilization power due to the KMT`s suppression of local factions, the party`s political base was unaffected by the absence of a strong national opposition at the time.\nDuring the 1977 local elections, the KMT continued to suppress local factions while giving support to KMT members who had no factional background. The local factions were no longer as effective as they had been during the local elections in 1972. Except for a few counties and cities, no local factions abandoned the KMT, and their capacity for mobilization improved. However, factions outside the party successfully mobilized over 7% of new voters who had not voted previously. This resulted in unprecedented setbacks for the KMT, including the defeat of several Taiwan provincial councilors from local factions. Taiwan has since formed an opposition capable of mobilizing the entire country.2023-07-13T00:00:00Z民粹主義與2020高雄市長罷免及補選
https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/145586
題名: 民粹主義與2020高雄市長罷免及補選; Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and By-election of Kaohsiung City2023-07-04T07:30:01Z