探索台灣經濟邊緣化問題：國際總體經濟政策協作思維

Abstract

台灣經濟因參與國際組織失利與兩岸互動僵局，而存在被邊緣化的危險，已成各界討論焦點。本文研究目的，即在於考量中台日美四國的互動關係之後，運用賽局只探討合作機制效率解，但不論及協商過程的研究方法，觀察在各種經濟衝擊下，台灣若參與包含中國在內的各種經濟政策協作架構，是否能使我國經濟優於現狀。模擬結果顯示，目前中國未必能夠結合美日等國，使我國落入邊緣化險境中。惟台灣的損失函數在某些合作賽局機制表現較佳，表未能參與區域經濟協作機制，對我總體經濟穩定確有負面影響。

Economic marginalization has been a main concern in Taiwan because of the country’s imbalanced economic and political relations with China, and its failure to participate in important international organizations. In this paper we link the regional cooperative mechanism to economic marginalization, and established a model to describe the relationship among China, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States. We analyze whether there exist some possible coalitional options to help stabilize Taiwan’s economy when it is confronted by a shock. The results are: (1) Taiwan should actively participate in regional cooperative organizations including China；(2) China is unable to ally with the United States or Japan to force Taiwan into the stress of marginalization.