從銀行危機、貨幣危機到IMF的救援方案

Abstract

本文目的在於希望從變遷中的銀行業探尋全球金融危機的成因，並汲取教訓。過去幾十年來全世界發生金融危機的頻率顯著提高，顯示全球金融正處於十分脆弱的狀態，造成這種金融不安定的原因部分源自銀行業本身具有先天脆弱性；另一部分則肇因於美國金融創新與金融自由化。金融自由化的結果已大大改變了美國金融體系的風貌，美國金融監理機構監理能力不但沒有跟上金融自由化的腳步，還誤將效率市場典範擴大應用到金融部門，甚至在1999年通過Gramm-Leach-Bliley法案，正式廢除大蕭條年代禁止銀行業從事風險性投資銀行業務之規定（即Glass-Steagall法案），金融自由化與金融投機畸型發展的結果，就可能產生超大型金融危機。1980年代美國金融自由化引來許多新興國家仿傚，結果出現極凶狠的金融危機：雙重危機，這種危機只有國際貨幣基金會的救援可以解套，但國際貨幣基金會提供緊急貸款的條件極可能讓雙重危機更惡化。

The paper seeks to draw lessons from the changing faces of the banking industry to explain crises in the worldwide financial system. The past few decades have witnessed a growing number of financial crises around the world, showing that the worldwide financial system is inherently unstable. This financial instability derives partly from the inherent fragility of the banking industry and partly from certain financial innovations and the financial deregulation of the banking sector. Financial liberalization has profoundly changed the financial landscape in the United States. US regulators are not only unable to keep up with the pace of financial liberalization, but also misleadingly apply the efficient-market paradigm to the financial sector. Since the Depression-era prohibition on banks engaging in investment banking was formally ended by the 1999 Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, financial liberalization and speculative activities, if left to run wild, have the potential to develop into a full-fledged crisis. Many emerging economies that followed the US trend toward financial liberalization in the 1980s also paved the way to twin crises in banking and currency, a particulary vicious financial mess. While the IMF is currently the only institution that can offer some help, it’s emergency loan packages are always tied to belt-tightening measures which have the potential to deepen rather than bail out the crises.