外國經濟干擾、物價膨脹與貨幣政策名目指標的更迭

Abstract

本文於小型開放經濟體系的架構下，探討本國遭遇國外干擾所引發的物價膨脹時，貨幣當局透過改變貨幣政策的名目指標，以穩定物價的政策效果。作者以Shaw、Lai and Chang（2005）之內生成長模型架構為基礎，分析貨幣政策目標，由固定貨幣成長率改採固定通貨膨脹率時，抑制物價膨脹的效果。我們發現：本國政府若於目前宣告未來將改變貨幣政策，放棄原先採用的固定貨幣成長率制，而改採固定物價膨脹率制，以因應國外利率上升所導致之高物價膨脹率，這樣可使股價下降的幅度縮小、物價膨脹率上升的程度減緩，減低產出成長率的降幅，而具有穩定經濟的效果。

This paper examines the effect of a preannounced change in the monetary policy in a small open economy. Based on the framework of Shaw, Lai and Chang（2005）, using an endogenous growth model, we explore how a monetary policy – switching the money growth rate targeting to the nflation targeting – affects the growth rate and price as facing a disturbance from foreign. The main result is that an anticipated monetary policy leads to a lower fall in stock prices, mitigating the inflation, and declining the economic growth. The anticipated monetary policy hence exhibits an stabilization effect on the economy.