赴陸交流對臺灣學生統一意願之影響

Abstract

中共為達成統一臺灣之目標，將臺灣青年視為對臺工作重心。採橫斷法的既有研究認為：赴陸交流經驗對臺灣青年的統獨立場並無顯著影響。但是，若改採定群追蹤法，則研究發現是否不同？本文研究假設認為：社會信任與善意感受的變遷將影響赴陸交流臺生統一意願的變化。本研究透過兩波問卷調查的定群追蹤後發現：僅僅十天的交流，就有36.7%的赴陸臺生改變其統一意願，變得更贊成統一者比變得更不贊成者多12.3%。本文提出的模型可解釋赴陸交流臺生統一意願變遷程度25.8%的變異。為避免赴陸交流臺生統獨立場受中共官方影響，根據本文研究發現並非要縮減赴陸交流，而是應強化臺灣學生對中國大陸的瞭解。

The political propaganda aimed at unifying Taiwan with the territories now governed by the People’s Republic of China (the PRC) has been targeted specifically at young people in Taiwan. Previous cross-sectional studies of Taiwanese exchange students have not indicated any significant relationships between the experience of being an exchange student in the PRC and perspectives on the issue of Taiwanese independence. This research is concerned with whether the results of a cohort study of the relationship between student visitation and political preference remain the same. A hypothesis was made which suggests that changes in social trust and political hostility affect the perspectives of Taiwanese students on the independence/unification issue. The panel study was conducted twice, and the results show that 36.7% of Taiwanese students had changed their perspectives on the independence/unification issue after 10 days of visiting the PRC. It was found that 12.3% more students came to support unification than independence. The model employed in this research explained 25.8% of the variance. This research concluded that to prevent young people in Taiwan from being influenced by the PRC’s propaganda, goals should be set to enhance students’ understanding of the PRC, rather than limiting student visits to the PRC.