如何改善我國財政赤字－開源或節流?

Abstract

我國政府財政收支自1989年來幾乎皆為赤字，收支不平衡問題存在已久，為了避免財政持續惡化，我國政府應採取適當措施來改善預算赤字，而改善赤字不外乎二種方法：「開源」或「節流」。然而，我們並無法確認哪一種方法才能長期持續的減少赤字，為了瞭解哪一種方法能有效的減少赤字，本文透過分析1962-2014年我國的歲入及歲出間之因果關係，探討我國應藉由增加收入或減少支出來達到減少預算赤字的目的，並以1989年為分界，檢視1989年前後是否存在不同因果關係方向。\n實證結果發現，若以我國在1962-2014年的資料分析，政府歲入會影響政府歲出，歲入增加會導致歲出隨之增加，因果關係與以往的實證文獻相同，但我國財政狀況在1989年開始出現結構性的改變，若以此為結論，恐會造成誤判，因此本文將時間區分成財政相對穩健期1962-1988年及財政惡化期1989-2014年分別分析，結果顯示因果關係已由穩健期的歲入影響歲出轉變為惡化期歲出正向影響歲入，表示削減支出會導致財政收入也下降，也就是說，要改善我國近30年來的財政赤字狀況，政府若將重心放在「節流」政策，將難以收到成效，應該將重心放在「開源」政策。

Taiwan’s government has been in financial deficit ever since 1989. A negative balance of payments has long been a standing issue. In order to avoid further financial deterioration, our government should take appropriate measures to reduce its budget deficit. This could be achieved two ways: by raising taxes or with spending cuts. However, it is not clear which of these two options can reduce deficits in the long run. To determine which method effectively reduces deficit and explore which method our government should take to reduce its budget deficit, this paper analyzes the causal relationship between the government’s annual revenue and expenditure from 1962 to 2014. We also set the year 1989 as a watershed to determine whether there is a difference in the direction of causal influence before and after 1989.\n The empirical result shows that, between 1962-2014, our government’s annual revenue influences government annual expenditure: revenue increase will lead to increase expenditure increase. The causal relationship concurs with previous empirical literature. However, since our government’s financial situation began to experience structural change in 1989, using this conclusion may lead to some misjudgment in the results. Therefore, we divided the analysis into two periods: 1962-1988, the fiscal stable period, and 1989-2014, the fiscal deterioration period.\n The results show that the causal relationship changed from revenue influencing expenditure in the fiscal stable period, to a positive long-run unidirectional causality running from expenditures to revenues in the fiscal deterioration period. In other words: spending cuts will lead to a fall in revenue as well. Therefore, to improve our nearly 30 years of financial deficit, the government should focus on tax raising policies rather than an emphasis on spending cuts.