論俄、中關係的蒙古角色及冷戰後亞太權力平衡問題

Abstract

從地緣政治觀之，蒙古地位極為脆弱，這是由於它位於俄、中兩大強權之間，既無第三鄰國也不靠海，而且國力也不如俄羅斯或中國。因為有史以來，蒙古一直是在中國和俄羅斯兩大勢力範圍下活動，既無中立的立場，本身也無法保持中立。直到1990年以後，才有俄、中、蒙三角關係的出現，在這種架構的影響之下，蒙古才開始採取獨立自主的外交政策。綜合分析可知，此種外交政策係由兩種區域聯盟體系整合而成，第一種為「垂直聯盟」體系，包含俄羅斯、中國及蒙古，此一體系主要是為了經濟利益之推動。另一則是具有政治意味的「水平聯盟」體系，其成員為美國、日本與蒙古，後者希望透過此聯盟，獲得區域權力平衡的戰略基礎。

The article focuses on the evolution of the Mongolian relations with Russia and China in the aftermath of the Cold War as well as the possible impact of Mongolian strategy upon the balance of power in the region. After 1991, as a result of the rapid decline of the Soviet influence and relatively slow rising of China, for the first time in modern history Mongolia acquired the opportunity to carry out independent foreign policy, although it faced the major geopolitical challenge, being stuck in between Russia and China and lacking direct access to the sea. Enduring weakness of Russia in the 1990-s and establishment of close ties between Beijing and Moscow precluded the possibility of playing one neighbor against the other for Mongolia. Under the circumstances, Mongolia, while drifting economically towards currently emerging Chinese market, simultaneously chose to pursue political and military ties with the United States and Japan, As a result, Mongolian foreign policy now has two main goals: preservation of economic cooperation with Russia and China in order to provide stable markets for Mongolian exports and development of strategic ties with US and Japan aimed at the reestablishing regional balance of power and securing for Mongolia some room for political maneuver. This two layer model of foreign policy has direct influence upon Mongolian bilateral relations with Russia and China (especially the latter) and could be attractive for other states in the region as a way of providing a counterweight to the growing economic and political influence of China.