半總統制下的內閣組成與政治穩定

Abstract

本文比較了中華民國、俄羅斯和波蘭的半總統制在府會分立下的穩定性表現。挑選這三個國家是因爲俄羅斯和波蘭代表多黨體系的半總統制國家府會對應的兩種不同的模式，而台灣在今（民國90）年底已經進入多黨政治，剛好正面臨模式抉擇的歷史關鍵。本文採用兩層的分析框架。第一層是先以總統權力大小、府會關係和政黨體系搭建出半總統制運作的基本框架；第二層是再以多數／少數內閣、單一政黨／聯合內閣與總統黨參與／不參與內閣三個變項演繹出八種組閣的狀態，而後分別計算其可欲性。在分析框架確定後，本文將俄羅斯、波蘭和台灣的三個經驗事例加以歸類定性，並探討其實際的表現和理論推論的結果是否吻合。本文的重點是探討半總統制國家在多黨的政黨體系下內閣組成的可能狀態與不同模式的分析比較。俄羅斯和波蘭代表的兩種不同模式正可作爲台灣在憲政發展關鍵點上的借鏡。

This paper compares stability performance under the semi-presidential system in the ROC, Russia and Poland. These three cases are selected because Russia and Poland represent two distinctive modes of interaction between the president and the parliament under semi-presidentialism in a multi-party system, and Taiwan after the year-end parliamentary elections of 2001 has shifted to a multi-party system, thus sharing the same institutional framework with Russia and Poland. This paper applies a two-level analytical framework. The first level focuses on presidential power, president-parliamentary relations, and party system. The second level of analysis integrates the three variables of majority/minority cabinet, single-party/coalition government, and participation/non-participation of the presidential party and comes up with eight cabinet formation scenarios. The desirability of those eight scenarios is calculated. The empirical cases of Russia, Poland, and Taiwan are categorized accordingly, and their performance is then examined against theoretical predictions derived from our analytical framework. The focus of this paper is to compare the different cabinet formation modes in a semi-presidential, multi-party system. The Russian and Polish cases represent distinctive modes of president-parliamentary interaction that can shed light on Taiwan`s institutional development at a critical moment.