海峽兩岸關係中的西伯利亞因素

Abstract

1、西伯利亞與遠東在俄中經濟、科技及文化各方面的關係，尤其是在邊境貿易、經濟與科技合作方面，扮演日漸重要的角色。 2、愈來愈令遠東及西伯利亞區域居民，尤其企業界不安的所謂“中國威脅”之感受是情感的層面多於理性層面。基本上它應該做一個較長遠的展望，上述不安之情緒受制於下列因素： 1)人口上的情況：西伯利亞及遠東地區的人口數量正在減少，中國普遍地，尤其鄰近區域的人口成長，中國人對遠東及西伯利亞區域不斷地的滲透。 2)中國東北高速的經濟成長(俄國對中國東北之成長所知不多)，與俄國嚴重之經濟衰退以及目前低度的經濟成長，西伯利亞特定的企業，尤其是中小企業對廉價而且品質優劣不一的中國產品無限的發展，深感憂心。前述憂慮給主張與西方、北約合作甚至結盟的（迥異於執政黨）觀點製造了機會，從而鞏固與中國交往時的立場。此一觀點雖非居優勢，但有一定市場。 3、至於海峽兩岸（中國與台灣）關係，俄國商界立場受制於兩個因素：在相當層次，由於不願意使與中國的關係複雜化，不是完全支持官方立場（一個中國，台灣是中國的一部分），就是對這個問題缺乏興趣。這可能是由於對問題本質，尤其對亞太地區安全的問題不了解所致。 西伯利亞對於有關台灣及與其發展合作可能和西伯利亞地區與中國、台灣合作之積極發展的影響不甚了解或者完全不了解。 本人深信積極發展合作是可能的，唯有： 1)需要對台灣之發展、海峽兩岸關係具有更深入的認識及訊息，近些年來，杔木斯克大學已三次出版有關台灣的簡訊，現正出版第四期簡訊。我們證實同意在杔木斯克大學舉辦亞太地區（台灣海峽）安全問題的研討會。 2)發展經濟、科技以及教育方面的合作，尤其若能夠吸引中小企業的參與，對於西伯利亞及遠東具有重大意義，若能研究出讓台灣、中國東北及西伯利亞公司和企業聯合之計畫，應是可思考的方向。此項計畫，尤其有關創新及教育方面，雖然困難，但有其可行之處，特別是顧問及資訊業務方面。

1. Siberia plays a more and more important role in the economic, technological and cultural relations between Russia and China, in particular in the areas of border trade and economic and technological cooperation. 2. The growth of the so-called China Threat in Siberia, in particular among the business community is more an emotional than rational reaction. People should not be so myoptic. The unease was likely caused by the following perceptions: a. The population in Siberia is declining. On the contrary, the Chinese population is growing in the neighboring areas and continues to migrate into Siberia. b. Certain businesses in Siberia, in particular the small-and-medium size enterprises (SMEs) were apprehensive about the rapid economic growth in Northeast China (where Russia was not familiar with) and the economic deterioration and stagnation in Russia. They were deeply concerned with the unlimited development of cheap but mixed quality products made in China. This concern created a market for the position of cooperating or even forming an alliance with the West and NATO (a position opposite to the ruling party). It also set the tone of how to deal with China. Although this position is not the most favorable at present, yet it has certain support. c. With respect to their position on cross-strait relations (between China and Taiwan), the Russian business community was constrained by two factors. First, to a certain extent, not wanting to complicate its relations with China, the business community either fully supported the official stand (i.e., one China policy, Taiwan is part of China) or showed no interest at the issue at all. This is probably because they were not familiar with the issue, especially that of the Asia-Pacific security. Second, people in Siberia were not familiar with Taiwan and the possibility of developing cooperation relationship with her. They did not quite or not at all understand the impact of the development of cooperation between Siberia and China or Taiwan. Thus, I believe that cooperation can be developed through the following: a. information and knowledge about the development of Taiwan and cross-strait relations. In recent years, Tomsk University has published three newsletters on Taiwan. The fourth one is under way. We confirmed that Tomsk University has agreed to sponsor a conference on the Asia-Pacific (Taiwan Strait) Security issue, and b. cooperation on economy, technology and education. If the SMEs can be attracted to participate, it will have far-reaching impact on Siberia. Cooperation among businesses from Taiwan, Northeast China and Siberia is a proposal worth consideration. Although it might be difficult, especially with regard to innovation and education, it is not entirely infeasible, in particular in consulting and information technology service.