中俄戰略協作夥伴關係對台俄互動之制約

Abstract

在俄國與中共的戰略協作伙伴關係架構之下，兩國的軍事合作提昇了中共對台灣武力威脅的能力，同時也成為嚇阻美國避免介入台海危機的主要力量，俄國在台海局勢中扮演著間接但卻舉足輕重的角色。然而，這是否意味著俄國真的會支持中共在統一問題上訴諸武力卻不無疑問。 俄羅斯的對外政策採行現實主義路線，因此奉行國家利益至上以及全方位的外交政策。儘管普京重視俄中戰略協作伙伴關係，並多次強調「俄方在涉及台灣的一切問題上都會堅定支持中方」，但他也早有言在先：俄羅斯外交的首要目標是本國的安全與經濟利益。因此在油管鋪設走向、雙邊經貿、中國勞動力出口、軍事技術合作等重大問題上，他必先著眼於本國利益。對於俄與中的合作，俄羅斯國防政策委員會便主張，過程中應該要避免介入棘手的中美關係，因為俄羅斯對外政策的原則之一就是要最大限度地避免衝突，特別是跟那些俄羅斯經濟發展所依賴的國家和地區。首先，保持與西方世界平等的穩定的關係，並在復興經濟的過程中得到西方的資金援助是俄羅斯外交的重要任務，俄羅斯政府不會因為支持中共對台動武而破壞與美國及西方國家的關係。 此外，亞太地區的任何軍事衝突都會激化該地區的安全形勢，這不符合俄羅斯的利益，將會分散俄羅斯的精力，更何況俄羅斯同台灣還有二十多億美元的經貿往來。所以從俄羅斯自身總體戰略利益及中美俄三角互動等方面來看，俄羅斯比較傾向於兩岸關係維持現狀或以和平方式解決，也不願因此捲入與美的對抗與衝突中。俄國政府在此問題上對中共的支持應以台灣海峽不爆發戰爭為底線。假設台海衝突真的無法避免，俄除了使自己避免直接捲入衝突並防止衝突擴大和戰事拖延，以避免其長遠利益受損之外，應會積極介入調停和外交斡旋，以便求取對俄國自身有利的戰後安排。關鍵詞：中俄戰略協作夥伴關係；台俄關係；俄羅斯角色

Under the structure of Sino-Russian strategic cooperation partnership, military cooperation between the both countries has promoted Chinese armed force to place a threat on Taiwan, also simultaneously became a main strength to prevent the US to intervene the crisis of cross-Strait. Russia frankly is acting indirect but pivotal role in the circumstance of Taiwan Strait. However, does this imply that Russia does not oppose the Chinese army to use force to accelerate the problem of unification? The foreign policy of Russian Federation acts up to the realism; therefore, the supreme national interests as well as the omni-directional principle are carried out in their foreign affairs. Although Putin has attached importance to the Sino-Russian strategic partnership, and emphasized many times that Russia supports the Chinese government firmly on all issues about Taiwan, he also gives forewarning that Russian diplomatic priority should be put on the basis of national security and the economic benefit. Therefore on those major issues such as, pipeline laying, bilateral economics and trade relations, Chinese population expansion, military technology cooperation etc., Putin always has placed the national benefit as priority. In regards to the process of cooperation between Russia and China, Russia’s Council for Foreign and Defense Policy deemed not to involve in the complicated Sino-American relations, because one of the Russian diplomatic principles is to avoid conflicting, especially with those Russian economic development relies on. First of all, important tasks in Russian diplomacy include maintaining equal and stable relations with Western countries, as well as obtaining fund aid for reviving Russian economy. Furthermore, any military conflict which would intensify the regional crisis in the Asian-Pacific area, does not serve Russia`s national interest, much less there are also more than 2 billion US dollar economic and trade transactions between Russia and Taiwan. Therefore from the aspects of overall strategic interest of Russia and interaction of Sino-Russo-American triangle, Russia might favor maintain the present situation or a peaceful solution in cross-Strait problem, and thus to be unwilling involving in resistance and the conflict with US. It is critical that Russia’s support towards China in this situation does not break out into a war in the Taiwan Straits. Besides avoiding direct conflicts and preventing the risk of warfare magnified or protracted, so as to avoid its long-term benefits damaged, if supposed military conflict is actually unable to evade, Russia also will positively step in the mediation or the diplomatic intercede in order to make postwar arrangement for its own sake. Keywords: Sino-Russian strategic cooperation partnership; Taiwan-Russia relation; Russian role.