俄羅斯貨幣政策操作工具與操作目標間關係

Abstract

自1998年金融危機以來，抑制通貨膨脹成為俄羅斯中央銀行的主要目標。在國際能源價格居高不下的情況下，油元持續湧入俄國，貨幣供給量也節節上揚，因而造成通貨膨脹的壓力。在盧布匯價走揚，油價上升趨緩，最低工資調升等政策的交錯影響下，俄羅斯央行抑制通貨膨脹的政策難度更高，勢必使得俄央行加大貨幣政策的強度。根據俄羅斯中央銀行以往的操作經驗，控制貨幣總量 (M2) 的方式依舊是俄國的主要政策手段。具體的政策工具大致包括：貨幣市場與公債市場的積極沖銷，利用穩定基金吸收財政盈餘，緊縮對俄羅斯各級政府與銀行業的信用；而受限於金融市場尚未健全，公開市場操作工具依然扮演次要的角色。透過VAR/VECM檢驗公開市場操作工具影響貨幣政策操作目標的因果關係，本文發現CBR貨幣操作工具對其操作目標間的影響力相當有限。

Containing inflation has become the main objective of Central Bank of Russia (CBR) since the 1998 financial crisis. Following high energy prices in recent years, the increased influx of petrodollars has resulted in inflationary pressure. Under the interweaving influence of other factors, such as the steady appreciation of Russian Ruble, the slow but continuing rise in oil prices, and the minimum wage policy, curbing inflation has became a more complicated task for CBR. According to the past experience of CBR, controlling the growth of money supply (M2) remains the major monetary policies. Some specific policies include sterilized intervention in money and bond markets, the use of stabilization fund to absorb fiscal surpluses, and the tightening credits issued to all-level governments and banking sectors. However, due to the lack of efficient financial markets, open market operations still play a minor role. The paper uses VAR/VECM to test the causality between open market tools and their objectives, and proves the limited influence of the market tools on their objectives.