歐亞經濟聯盟之發展與挑戰

Abstract

本論文目的在探討歐亞經濟聯盟從成立、實行到未來影響及展望。歐亞經濟聯盟是2015年元旦所成立的區域經濟組織，目前成員國包括俄羅斯、白俄羅斯、哈薩克、亞美尼亞、吉爾吉斯等五國。本文以新制度主義的兩個學派－歷史制度論、理性選擇制度主義為研究途徑。本論文共有五章，除了緒論與結論外，內文可分為歐亞經濟聯盟成立動機與歷程、潛在制約因素、影響與展望，欲詳細分析聯盟從成立、實行到未來走向，可提供未來針對前蘇聯地區所成立之區域組織一個研究基礎。\n 研究發現，歐亞經濟聯盟的成立兼具政治與經濟動機，每個國家的動機與誘因不同，這是理性選擇下的結果。歐亞經濟聯盟前身為俄白哈關稅同盟，因此保有關稅同盟的組織架構，同時也複製歐盟的運作模式，欲在短期內打造出第二個歐盟；此外，歐亞經濟聯盟在實行時所遇到的制約因素，可分為歷史、政治、經濟、社會等四面向。歐亞經濟聯盟在實行上深受歷史遺緒所影響，由於俄羅斯始終希望將歐亞經濟聯盟發展成歐亞聯盟，成為政治性區域組織，然而，受蘇聯遺緒影響，各國深怕主權被干涉，故對於此想法持反對意見。另外在經濟面向上，由於成員國與俄國的貿易日益加重，俄羅斯經濟逐年下滑將是個成員國所面臨的最大挑戰。最後在社會面向上，開放勞工自由移動後，俄國將大量湧入來自其他成員國的勞工，而俄國社會對中亞地區的移工抱持負面態度，是潛在的社會衝突因子。

This paper studied Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and was conducted by historical institutionalism and rational-choice institutionalism. This paper was divided into 5 chapters, and 3 of which dealt with EAEU establishment processes, its potential challenges, influences and prospects.\nAccording to the findings from the study, the establishment of EAEU had correlations with motivations politically and economically, which was an inevitable result of rational choice. On one hand, constraints challenging EAEU were greatly influenced by history legacy. Concerned about the severe deprivation of soverignity of EAEU members caused by Russia, these members were all strongly opposed to the proposal to transform Eurasian Economic Union into Eurasian Union. On the other hand, the annual decline of Russian economy would be the biggest challenge to EAEU members, who had a high level of dependency on trade with Russia. Finally, from the perspective of society, a large number of free-moving labors from EAEU members entering to Russia increased the social conflicts due to Russian people’s negative attitudes torwards East Asia immigrants.