台日中區域經濟整合之機遇與策略研究

Abstract

當今，臨區域性或世界性經濟整合風潮下，與台灣經濟發展密切之兩個鄰邦厥為中國大陸與日本。過去，日本學者提出雁行理論從詮釋台灣經濟奇蹟的發展模式與產業變遷歷程。然而近年來，中國大陸國民所得總量已超越日本成為世界第二大經濟體，而台灣經濟停滯於亞洲四小龍之末，又有經濟轉型瓶頸危機。因此，台灣須一方面保持與日本之傳統經貿關係，另方面，也需加強與中國大陸之經濟合作，以維台灣經濟成長動能。然而，不論台灣與中國大陸或日本之經濟合作，其實是一種既有合作又有競爭的動態關係。\n在客觀環境上，台灣是海島型經濟，全球化與區域經濟自由貿易是目前左右全球經濟發展的兩股潮流。近年來，台灣薪資成長率與經濟成長率皆居亞洲四小龍之末以及產業升級瓶頸難以突破等問題，皆導致台灣經濟減速或失去動能等現象。基本上，台灣目前所處時代潮流，外有世界性或區域性經濟整合風潮，內有產業結構轉型瓶頸有待突破。因此，就外環境衝擊研究，本文擬對區域經濟整合做觀察與描述性探討，並在區域經濟整合基礎上，本文提出「兩岸經濟轉型理論」（或稱兩翅理論，以隱喻兩岸經濟之起飛）以為消解內部轉型困境之方，或為台灣產業轉型提供建言，並擬就兩岸目前既有或未來進一步的經濟合作做出理論性探討。在產業合作與未來展望上，本文提出以台灣服務業結合大陸經濟發展，以進軍全球市場。

Today, under the regional or global economic integrational trend, Taiwan`s economic development is closely dedicated by two neighboring countries, China and Japan. From the past, Japanese scholars has advocated from the flying geese paradigm for interpreting on Taiwan`s economic miracle to the industrial transformation model. However, in recent years, the total national income in China has overtaken Japan to become the world`s second largest economy, while Taiwan`s economic stagnation causes the bottom of Four Asian Tigers. \nThere are bottlenecks in economic transition crisis. Taiwan should maintain the traditional trade and economic relations with Japan. On the other hand, Taiwan should strengthen economic cooperation with the Mainland China in order to achieve Taiwan`s economic growth momentum. However, regardless of the economic cooperation between Taiwan and Mainland China or Taiwan with Japan, their relationship becomes coopetition (a kind of both cooperation and competition) in a dynamic environment. Since Taiwan is an island-based economy, economic globalization and regional free trade is currently on the board. In recent years, Taiwan`s economic growth rate and wage growth rate are far behind Four Asian Tigers and difficult to break through the bottleneck of industrial transformation. These are all leading to Taiwan`s economic slowdown or loss of kinetic energy.\nBasically, in the current trend in which Taiwan and outside global or regional economy, there are industrial restructuring bottlenecks to be breakthrough. Therefore, in this paper on the regional economic integration, I observe and describe based on the proposal of "cross-strait economic transformation theory" (also known as Liang Chi theory, the metaphor of cross-strait economic takeoff ) that digests the internal party difficulties in transition, or provides suggestions for Taiwan`s industrial transformation, and intends to maintain good relationships of two sides (Japan and Mainland China) for the further economic cooperation. On industrial cooperation and future prospects, we propose to combine service industry (finance, cultural and creative industries and so on) of Taiwan’s experience learnt from Japan, and the vast developing space in Mainland China’s service market, there is a chance to enter the global service market.