Is There a Northeast Asian Naval Arms Race? Some Preliminary Findings

Abstract

This paper attempts to determine whether there is a naval arms race in Northeast Asia and formulates a conceptual framework to operationalize the notion of an “arms race.” Accordingly, the existence of an arms race is indicated by the following: an abnormal increase in defense spending; external focus and positive feedback actions in defense build-up; functional similarities of armed forces; and the political goal of dominance or deterrence. After conducting some statistical tests, however, this paper does not find these above indicators present in the Northeast Asian region, and thus concludes that there is currently no quantitative naval arms race in Northeast Asia.