The Spillover Monetary Effect of Devaluation: A Disequilibrium Interpretation of the Cooper Paradox and the "Reversed"

Abstract

本文要建立一個具有可分離外溢效果的總體失衝IS-LM-BT模型，來分析匯率貶值的效果。文中引進了貶值的外溢貨幣效果，因而導致本文對貶值之效果，有一些新的發現。本文發現貶值所導致之Cooper矛盾性，除了可由Chen (1973,1975), Krugman and Taylor (1978), 與Shieh and Mai (1979)等之均衝分析法來加以解釋之外，亦可由失衝分析法來詮釋之。此外，本文更發現眨值會導致「倒」Cooper矛盾現象，這是國經文獻上尚未有人曾提出過的。因此，本文在學術價值與理論創新上，或許有值得參考之處。This paper attempts to build a separable spillover disequilibrium IS-LM-BT framework similar to Lai (1980) to interpret the Cooper paradox and the "reversed" Cooper paradox produced by devaluation.Our formulation allows false trading to take place in diseqilibrium prices such that the discrepancy between the notional (planned, expected) and effective (realized, actual) demand or supply will exist, and spillover effects may propagate the whole economy through intermarket relationships. This characteristic can be modelled to revise the conventional general equilibrium IS-LM-BT devaluation macromodel.The main result shows that although devaluation, whether the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied or not, may improve the trade balance, the domestic economy is still contractionary. Moreover, when the Marshall-Lerner Condition is satisfied, devaluation may also lead to both the deterioration of the trade balance and the expansionary domestic economy which I tentatively name the "reversed" Cooper paradox of devaluation. This contrasts sharply with the arguments of Meade-Tsiang (1951, 1961), and differs theoretically from models of Chen (1973, 1975), Chen and Tsaur (1981), Krugman and Taylor (1978), Shieh (1981), Shieh and Mai (1979).