世界性通貨膨脹之探討

Abstract

國際市場的統合乃是和經濟理論以及經濟政策有看密切關係的一個問題，截至目前，經濟理論的各種模式和經濟政策大多是建立在各國市場相互獨立的假定。本文的主要目的在於討論國際市場統合的某些含義，並以實際的資料加以印證，本文的討論乃以特定商品市場為範圍以及其資料搜集期間的長短兩方面進行，具體地分析各國市場統合的程度。從總體經濟學的觀點而言，市場統合的概念有多種不同的意義，第一個意義是量的統合，第二個意義是各國物價變動趨勢相似的程度。本文的討論分為四個部份，一是商品流動數量方面的調和，二是資源的移動和經濟整合，三是貨幣數量和利率水準，四是物價和經濟整合。從四個不同部份討論國際市場的統合，每一部份都提出實際資料並探討有關的研究結果，用以加強市場統合的意義，所有的討論和分析都堅強地支持市場統合的理論，因此通貨膨賬乃是世界性的整體現象，各國物價水準變動之差異，只是表示匯率變動的程度而已。

The integration of international markets is a subect which is very closely related to economic theory and thereby economic policy. At present, the preponderance of models of economic behavior as well as economic policies adhere to the assumption that individual countries`markets are principally independent of each other.The purpose of this paper is simply to look at some of the implications of international market integration and to compare those implications with some of the data at hand. This paper is specifically to analyze the degree of integration among countries according to two specific parameters (1) the specific commodity`s market scope and (2) the time interval involved.The concept of market integration can have several different meanings within a macro economic framework. The first sense of integration is quantity integration. The second is the extent to which price data among countries are similar.This paper herewith includes four sections: (1) harmonic movement among quantity aggregates; (2) net flows of resources and economic inte-gration; (3) monetary aggregates and interest rates; (4) prices and economic integration.In each section a sampling of data and research is surveyed in order to develop some sense of the degree to which markets are integrated. The overall results strongly support the integration hypothesis. In all, in-flation is a one market world phenomenon and will differ among countries to the extent of changes in their exchange rates.