Determinants of Voting Behavior: An Analysis of the 1997 County Magistrate and City Mayoral Elections in Taiwan

Abstract

This paper is an effort to study factors affecting voting decisions in Taiwan, based on survey data obtained shortly after the thirteenth election of county magistrates and city mayors in Taiwan in November 1997. Our research findings indicate that the most important factor affecting voting decisions is “issue orientation, “followed by “candidate orientation” and “party identification.” In addition, these three factors are interrelated and their influences on voting decisions are highly overlapping. These findings should be attributed to the structure of voters, in Taiwan. Generally speaking, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have each had a fixed 20 percent voter support, and the New Party (NP) has its own fixed level of supporters (about 5 percent). Because of their c4fferent ideological outlook, ethnic identity, and independence/unification position, these voters not only affirm candidates of the party to their favor but also negate other parties’ candidates. To this 45 percent of the voters, the concepts of “issue orientation,” “candidate orientation,” and “party identification” are almost synonymous. Unlike voters with partisan preference, some other voters-about 40 percent of the electorate-care more about candidates ‘political views and competence than the party they belong to. The remaining 15 percent of voters neither especially favor any party nor have a clear understanding. about the political proposals and competence levels of the candidates; instead, they are often canvassed to vote by local ballot brokers. The voting behavior of this bloc may be used to explain some of the phenomena left unexplained by the model used in this research project.