Mr. Keynes and the Classics: A Suggested Turning Point

Abstract

這個總體理論是以個體經濟理論作根據的。國民產量的成長率不同，因國民所得的均衡點不僅僅是一個點。許多總體經濟理論發生相互矛盾，因這裏存在一個轉捩點。這轉捩點是最適當的利率或工資率，亦即最適當的資本或勞工的邊際生產力。在計算時，原始資料有時不能微分，本文使用未滑順的最適控制方法，發現貨幣和財政政策應調整，以減少景氣循環的波動。A turning point of macro theories is verified in which the parameters change in an expected direction. When the prices are incorporated into Hicks` (1937) LM-IS curves, they become non-linear or nonmonotonic. First, the policy is found not neutral, but the world real interest rate may not be the optimal interest rate whereby its second order derivative is negative instead of zero. Second, so far as the domestic inflation rate rises above the optimal level rather than inflation abroad, it tends to reduce real, financial, and innovation activities while the domestic currency is overvalued. The turning point is the optimal rate rather than the inflation abroad or the world real interest rate, whereby the output growth is maximized, and whereby con-tradictory macro theories ensued. Such turning points may shift due to institutional or technologial innovations. As far as prices remain sticky, Hicks` interpretation holds; otherwise it is substanstially refined.