The Perception of Threats and Pragmatic Policy Choice: A Survey of Public Opinion in Taiwan

Abstract

On the issue of unification vs. independence, the majority opinion in Taiwan is the maintenance of the status quo with divisions over the island`s long-term relations with China. Unlike those who are determined to pursue immediate unification or immediate independence, those who prefer the maintenance of the status quo are potentially flexible in their future decisions. Employing recently collected survey data, this study finds that the policy preferences of the island`s citizens are not just a function of primordial factors but are also conditional on their perceptions of threats, i.e., the likelihood of armed intervention by the United States on Taiwan`s behalf in a cross-Strait military conflict and a generally unfriendly Being policy toward Taiwan. These findings have important policy implications to all parties involved in the cross-Strait dispute, as citizens` preferences concerning the island`s future status may be manipulated through various policy initiatives.